Abe wins Tokyo despite rating decline

The LDP, which enjoys a strong majority in the lower house, is now seeking to achieve political stability by also securing a majority in the upper house. If it succeeds to do so in next month's polls, the ruling party's power to clear legislative bottlenecks and push through policy initiatives will increase drastically.

But critics warn that with a majority in both houses, Abe will shift his focus from the economy and try to push the conservative social agenda he was known for before the election, including a possible reassessment of Japan's wartime history.

As for revising Japan's pacifist constitution, there has been much debate within the LDP on whether plans to revise Article 96 should be included in its platform for the upper house election. But the platform only says the LDP aims to submit a bill to amend the supreme code because of New Komeito's opposition to an amendment to Article 96, which sets the legislative voting requirements for starting a referendum on revising the constitution. Therefore, the upper house election will decide the political direction Japan will take.

The Tokyo assembly election results often foretell the outcome of the national election held immediately afterward. Four years ago, the DPJ became the largest party in the Tokyo assembly for the first time and went on to unseat the LDP from power in the country. Twelve years ago, the LDP won a landslide victory in the Tokyo election and then earned a handsome victory in the upper house polls by riding on the popularity of then prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.

With the LDP likely to win the upper house election, Abe seems ready to break into full stride. But the New Komeito, formally in coalition with the LDP, is expected to act as the main brake within the government and in Japan's bicameral legislature on the more radical right-wing agenda of Abe and other LDP leaders.

The author is China Daily's Tokyo bureau chief. E-mail: caihong@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily 06/29/2013 page5)