Small signs of progress

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea seized the world's attention again when the DPRK's military said on Monday it would launch "special actions" against the Lee Myung-bak government and conservative media in the Republic of Korea.

Western media have been quick to suggest that the DPRK is plotting another military provocation in the wake of its unsuccessful satellite launch on April 13.

However, the military notice released by the Korean Central News Agency in Pyongyang showed the DPRK was irritated by the ROK's remark that it had "precision and power enough to immediately strike any part of the DPRK"; a provocative comment that was conveniently left out of Western media reports.

A stable and peaceful Korean Peninsula is in the interests of all related parties. Both the DPRK and the ROK should remain cool-headed and all parties should do their utmost to reduce the tensions that have arisen over the DPRK's satellite launch.

Many analysts have played up the launch as an attempt to enhance Kim Jong-un's authority, but this is not the case. True, if it succeeded the young leader would have benefited, but it wasn't his decision to launch the rocket at this time.

On April 11, before the launch, Paek Chunghou, general-director of the DPRK's General Satellite Control and Command Center, openly told reporters that Kim Jong-il decided on the launch before his death as a means of celebrating the hundredth anniversary of the birth of State founder Kim Il-sung.

All Kim Jong-un could do was try and neutralize the negative effects of the launch by stressing it was for peaceful purposes.

He will have known there was a high possibility of failure due to the limited technological and industrial capacities of his country.

This is why the DPRK informed the International Civil Aviation Organization, International Maritime Organization, and the International Telecommunications Society about the launch site and the rocket's orbit before the launch.

Kim Jong-un also ordered domestic open space technology experts to invite their international colleagues and reporters to the launch site and the General Satellite Control and Command Center, where general-director Paek emphasized the rocket would not harm neighboring countries as it had a self-destruct mechanism if needed.

The pressure imposed by the international community before and after the launch has only served to reinforce to the DPRK the necessity of pursuing songun - military first - politics.

Actually, the US was never worried about the satellite launch. While it held discussions with the ROK immediately after the launch, it did not oppose the launch when informed last December about the DPRK's plans to launch a satellite for the hundredth anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth.

Instead of seeing it as a serious threat, the US has taken the launch as an opportunity to promote its missile defense system to the ROK.

Meanwhile, Japan made use of the satellite launch to further flex its military muscle.

If the ROK, the US and Japan are serious about maintaining peace on the Peninsular, they should join China in promoting dialogue rather than constantly berating the DPRK and aggravating its concerns about its security environment.

The DPRK also should fully comply with relevant UN Security Council resolutions and make more efforts to ease the tensions.

Kim Jong-un has actually acted differently from his father. For the first time he delivered a long speech to the army that was broadcast live; and for the first time international experts and journalists were invited to witness the launch, albeit with deficiencies in actual arrangements; then after the failure of the rocket for the first time the DPRK admitted it immediately, without blaming any "enemy". If these are taken into consideration along with the changes introduced at the end of last year, namely the editing of laws regulating foreign investment, joint venture, and foreigner tax, and Kim Jong-un's order to "find reconstruction measures suiting the nation through discussion without taboos", there are clearly signs of change in DPRK. Economic reforms, if realized, would not only bring DPRK out of isolation, but also help maintain long-term peace in Northeast Asia.

That will require all sides restrain themselves to prevent tensions from getting out of hand. But as the ancient Greek historian Herodotus pointed out, it is better to trust one's eyes than one's ears, and seeing the changes in the DPRK's approach, carrots will be of better use than sticks in attaining lasting peace on the peninsular.

The author is a professor of East Asian studies at Nanjing University.

(China Daily 04/26/2012 page9)