French turn causes concern

In the face of a gloomy outlook for the debt crisis and European integration, most European leaders fear the turbulence a victory for the left in France might bring. Since the financial crisis, most socialist governments have been toppled. France will join a very small handful of European countries (Iceland and Denmark) that have a left government if Francois Hollande, the French Socialist candidate, wins the election.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in particular, fears the emergence of Hollande, who wants to renegotiate the Fiscal Pact and issue Eurobonds to stimulate growth. To German ears, this sounds like: "Germany should pay more while the rest of Europe can relax on austerity." This is the last thing Germany wants. No wonder Chancellor Merkel declared her support for the incumbent French president Nicolas Sarkozy even before he launched his campaign. The British Prime Minister David Cameron, the Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, and even US President Barack Obama have shown explicit or implicit support for Sarkozy.

The French political discourse has long been dominated by "civic solidarity arguments", which stress egalitarian and non-materialist values - while the discourse in the United States is dominated by market rationality. Therefore on the campaign trails, different agendas have emerged in France and the US.

The results of the first round of voting in France on April 22 show that a fierce competition between the left and the right will take place. Hollande and Sarkozy, the UMP candidate, will face off in the runoff on May 6. They are neck-in-neck in the first round, with Hollande taking 28.6 percent of the votes and Sarkozy 27.3 percent. Thanks to his aggressive style, Sarkozy has become the most unpopular president in French history and polls suggest that Hollande will win with a double digit advantage in the second round. But Sarkozy's famous fighting spirit will carry him through to the last minute. If we presume that in the second round, most far right votes, the National Front got 18 percent of the votes in the first round, will go to Sarkozy while most far left votes, the Left Front received 11 percent of the votes, will go to Hollande, then Sarkozy still has a chance.

But maybe it is time to speculate what will happen if France turns to the left in two weeks time. Hollande's victory will signal a revival of the left and an end to the turning-right trend in Europe.

Even if Holland does not win, the rise of the far left in the first round of voting is already something unusual in Europe. Jean-Luc Melenchon, a former socialist minister and the leader of the Left Front, has said he wants to stop austerity policies and declared the financial world the "real enemy". Numerous European far right parties have milked the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. But the far left is absent despite a global Occupy Movement and a strong public resentment against the financial world.

If Hollande does win the election, the right might secure more seats in the national assembly elections in June. Cohabitation is nothing new in France.

So if France turns left, there might be some changes, but no big ones the same can be said of French foreign policy and its relations with China.

Hollande is a pragmatic person, although he has raised hackles in Berlin and in the markets, he told London's financial institutions he was "not dangerous" and people close to him have said that he will visit Germany once he takes office. He can follow the example of Francois Mitterrand, a socialist who privatized more companies than any other French president and maintained good relations with his German counterpart Helmut Kohl, who, like Merkel, was a Christian Democrat.

The left in France, as in other European countries, has not come up with a viable theory of how to handle a dwindling working class and an unsustainable welfare system as a result of globalization and an aging population.

The woeful fiscal situation in France does not give the left much leeway. France's welfare system swallows 28 percent of France's GDP each year, higher than any other OECD country. Heavier taxes, especially the appalling 75 percent tax on top earners, are unthinkable in practice.

The author is assistant researcher at European Studies Institute of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

(China Daily 04/25/2012 page9)