Onus is now on everyone

White paper shows that the whole of society is to participate in actions that will reduce the country's energy consumption

China's white paper on climate change, released on Nov 22, marks a key point in the global efforts to deal with one of the greatest challenges of our times.

While the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent of 2005 levels by 2020 was already made public in 2009, the clear message from the white paper that "China will rationally control its total energy consumption" is of great significance.

The white paper reveals that the whole of society is to participate in actions to address climate change and that energy consumption is to be reduced through accelerating the transformation of the country's economic development pattern, low-carbon urbanization, limiting the rapid expansion of energy-hungry and high-emission industries and increasing the productivity of resources.

Why is this significant?

It is significant because it is a generally accepted global trend that in the final electricity demand mix, personal transportation is responsible for 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, while construction and industry are responsible for a further 20 percent each.

In industrialized countries the focus has remained on the electricity generation infrastructure. But historically, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, end-use efficiency has been the most important factor in decreasing the energy intensity of economic output. For there is a multiplier effect: if energy is generated using fossil fuel every unit of energy reduced at the point of end-use replaces three units of primary energy and their emissions. However, end-use efficiency requires modifying consumption patterns, while the supply side of electric power generation is based on units, making technical changes easier to implement.

Quite correctly, China is not relying solely on technologies that have yet to be fully developed in order to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases, it is also focusing on end-use applications that drive supply-side transformations that deliver a new, improved or different energy service. End-use technologies, consumers, and the demand for energy services such as heating, lighting, mobility and power are the most important factors in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

By acknowledging that it is imperative to change consumption patterns, China has signaled that it is serious about addressing climate change. And while other countries have been focusing on the efficiency of resource use rather than on conservation or limiting the use of natural resources, China aims to confront the challenge of restricting the use of natural resources.

China has also correctly read the historical trends in the process of urbanization. Urbanization involves two transitions: First, the establishment of infrastructure to enable rapid growth, and second, a change in consumption from basic to optional goods supported by higher incomes. According to the National Energy Administration of China, the six high energy-consuming industries on which infrastructure is largely based - electric power, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals and petrochemicals - contributed 42.7 percent to the growth of electricity consumption in the first five months of 2011. They need to be the focus of attention in ensuring optimum resource use.

The key issue is the path adopted for economic growth. It is not necessary to adopt the structures, technologies and practices of industrialized countries in designing urbanization, and it will be necessary to change the way in which urban dwellers live, work and communicate.

For example, economic growth normally means more transport; growth means more goods to be produced and wealth leads to more services consumed. For example, in the European Union road transport represents the largest energy consumer, accounting for 73 percent of total demand in 2009, while rail passenger traffic has fallen by 23 percent in the last decade. With its extensive development of high-speed railways and urban transport systems, China is already well ahead of industrialized countries in this regard.

At present energy statistics covering economic activities as part of the energy system and end-use data, in the form of services such as mobility, lighting and heating, is generally not available. By reorienting the statistical system to include consumption and "family carbon emissions", China will be able to develop more realistic models of energy transition than are now available.

Will China be able to achieve its objectives? The policies and actions outlined in the white paper have the potential, but implementation will not be easy.

The timing is certainly right. The experience of industrialized countries shows that rising incomes lead to changes in consumption greater personal mobility, bigger houses, extensive use of appliances and changes in diet which are all more energy intensive and also produce more greenhouse gas emissions.

The world will be watching very closely to see whether this is indeed the path to sustainable development.

The author is a visiting professor at the University of International Business and Economics, Beijing.

(China Daily 11/29/2011 page8)