Confessions of a small-time investor

I have a confession to make. I am a small investor. During the past 10 years, I have invested part of my income in stocks and warrants, funds and gold, in the hope of beating inflation. But the result, it pains me to say, is I am no wealthier now than I would have been without such speculation.

I admit I am not an intelligent investor. But then intelligence really has nothing to do with the money game, otherwise Isaac Newton, who most people would agree was quite a smart man, would not have lost a large chunk of his fortune in failed investments.

I am not a reckless investor either. I try to follow the golden rules when picking stocks and I study the theories and sift through the avalanche of expert advice available. It was my belief that diligence and discretion, combined with a mastery of the principles and techniques, would help me win the battle for wealth. But alas I was wrong. The gamble for gain is far more tortuous than anyone could imagine.

Because I did not have large sums of money at my disposal, I started small, betting on an electronic manufacturer selected as the "Best Managed Company in Hong Kong" by an influential Asian financial publication. Ngai Lik seemed to fit well into all criteria for a good bet set by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing: low price-to-earnings ratio, earnings stability and years of dividend record. It was a favorite of respectable analysts, and was recommended in a variety of books and magazines. In 2005 I jumped in.

That was the beginning of my nightmare.

In the following years the stock price embarked on a long march downward, "because of the rising price of crude oil, which increased the company's production costs". But the fundamentals remained sound, analysts insisted. So I bought more, expecting oil prices would one day drop so I could get out. And drop they did, to a record low of about $33 a barrel during the 2008 global financial crisis. Unfortunately my stock dropped even further. I jumped ship as it continued to plummet into the depths. Today the company has changed its name and lost 97 percent of the market value it had six years ago.

I had bought another stock to diversify my small portfolio, because, as we all know, it is dangerous to put all your eggs in one basket. It happened to be Beijing Media, the advertising arm of Beijing Youth Daily, the first and only mainland media organization to list in Hong Kong. The listing was hailed as a milestone for reform of China's media industry, and shares began trading in December 2004 with much fanfare after being heavily oversubscribed in its initial public offering. I started buying at HK$19 ($2.44), only to see the price drop to its nadir of HK$2 in 2008. Today it hovers around HK$4.5 with basically no trading volumes.

Doing an autopsy of my investment history, marked by losses as a result of misjudgment, is painful. Looking back, I am stunned by the decisions I made, which put me in the wrong place at the wrong time on the wrong stock. I missed the biggest bull run in the mainland market in 2006 and 2007, but dived in after the Shanghai Composite Index soared above 6,000. I cringed with fear when I should have been bold, and held on when it was time to get out.

Now I realize how mindless I was when I had tried to discover the secret of wealth in a place where the only rule is that there are no rules. Boom and bust come and go, good companies turn bad, and the market rises and falls on waves of randomness and deviations. To win out in this place where 80 percent of traders are destined to lose requires much more than just a grasp of principles and theories, backed by the encouraging words of expert advice.

The mainland stock market is witnessing a rebound after losing nearly 20 percent this year. But with the European debt crisis deteriorating and the US economy yet to recover, China's economic outlook is by no means optimistic. So ignore the temptation and fasten your purse strings.

The author is a writer with China Daily.

(China Daily 11/17/2011 page10)