Peninsula can still be free of tension

But despite the drawbacks, the situation is not beyond hope. The relations between the DPRK and the ROK can still improve during Lee Myung-bak's term in office if both countries change their minds and decide to resolve their disputes through dialogue rather than deciding everything before holding constructive talks. Or, we have to wait until the end of the Lee Myung-bak administration's term in office.

After the Cheonan incident, the US and the ROK have strengthened their alliance by holding frequent joint military drills on land and at sea close to the DPRK. Though the US and the ROK want to use drills as deterrent against Pyongyang, they have succeeded only in heightening tensions on the Peninsula. The ROK has also taken some steps unilaterally that could provoke the DPRK and lead to another conflict.

But no matter what happens, the situation is not grave enough to lead to an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula in the near future. For one, the DPRK does not want a full-fledged war. And despite the US support, the ROK will not misjudge the situation on the Peninsula and attack the DPRK. Besides, President Lee Myung-bak wouldn't want the ROK to start a war during his tenure.

The threat of an all-out war in the long run, however, looms because of the unsound peace and stability on the Peninsula.

The DPRK is passing through the sensitive period of power transfer and policy adjustments. Pyongyang has faced great challenges in terms of security and development in recent years, and is still trying to overcome its difficulties. But since DPRK leader Kim Jong-il is in good physical condition, the transfer of power is expected to pass off smoothly.

Moreover, the policy adjustments made by the DPRK reflects Kim Jong-il's opinions. Though the DPRK has accelerated its pace of economic policy adjustment, it is not likely to copy the "China model" to carry out comprehensive economic reform. It is generally believed that Pyongyang will remain committed to stabilizing its internal and external situations during the sensitive period, and DPRK-ROK relations are unlikely to be strained further this year.

That's why there is still hope. But to transform this hope into reality, all parties to the Six-Party Talks should stick to the Sept 19 Joint Statement. That means the DPRK has to honor its pledge to abandon all nuclear weapons and scrap its nuclear programs, return to the framework of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and accept the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The US, on its part, should not stock nuclear weapons on the Peninsula or think of attacking the DPRK. And the ROK should keep its promise of not deploying nuclear weapons within its territory according to the Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Joint Declaration of 1992.

The author is a senior research fellow of China Arms Control and Disarmament Association.

(China Daily 07/28/2011 page9)