From Overseas Press

China still lags behind US in many ways

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-05-20 15:36

China's emergence has led to some projections that China is going to surpass the US in the near future, but "China still lags far behind the US economically and militarily, and has focused its policies primarily on its region and on its economic development," said Joseph Nye, University Distinguished Service professor at Harvard in a commentary published in Financial Times.

Nye mentions that Goldman Sachs predicted that China's GDP will pass that of the US in about 2003, but "even if the two economies would be equivalent in size, but not equal in composition," for "China would still have a vast underdeveloped countryside and it will begin to face demographic problems from the delayed effects of its one-child policy. Moreover, as countries develop, there is a tendency for growth rates to slow." Nye also emphasized that "per capita income is a measure of the sophistication of an economy." In addition, "China's export-led development model will probably need to be adjusted as global trade and financial balances become more contentious in the aftermath of the financial crisis," said Nye.

Besides, Chinese political future is not very clear, Nye said. "Whether China can develop a formula that can manage an expanding urban middle class, regional inequality, high level of corruption remains to be seen."

Furthermore, China does not have the military capability to be a superpower, according to Nye, and many Pacific states welcome a US presence, and "too aggressive a military posture could produce a countervailing coalition among its neighbors that would weaken both China's hard and soft power."

China will not become a peer competitor of the US, Nye concludes, "given the global challenges that China and the US face, they have much to gain from working together."