<tt id="6hsgl"><pre id="6hsgl"><pre id="6hsgl"></pre></pre></tt>
          <nav id="6hsgl"><th id="6hsgl"></th></nav>
          国产免费网站看v片元遮挡,一亚洲一区二区中文字幕,波多野结衣一区二区免费视频,天天色综网,久久综合给合久久狠狠狠,男人的天堂av一二三区,午夜福利看片在线观看,亚洲中文字幕在线无码一区二区

          Op-Ed Contributors

          Property market may follow Japan's trajectory

          By Gao Shanwen (China Daily)
          Updated: 2010-05-17 09:02
          Large Medium Small

          Property market may follow Japan's trajectory

          A series of new policies issued by the State Council, the country's Cabinet, to cool down soaring property prices have again made people wonder about the housing market's future trend. What other tightening measures are likely to follow? Will housing prices see a continuous "downturn", will the drop be short-term or will there be sharp fluctuations?

          What can be predicted, though, is that China's existing economic structure cannot sustain fast GDP growth in the long run, and a series of accumulated systemic problems, including the real estate price "bubble", will finally overwhelm the economy by, say, 2012. Albeit, during this time, the authorities will take more rigorous macro-control measures if the economy faces inflation.

          From the second half of 2011, serious inflation will probably lead to stricter macroeconomic regulations, resulting in the slowing down of economic growth. China passed the "Lewis turning point" and shifted from being a labor-surplus economy to one with labor shortage some time between 2003 and 2006. The uneven economic growth pattern which relies on cheap labor forces will end with the cleaning-up of local financing platform and bursting of the property market "bubble".

          Prices in the property market, especially the housing market in first-tier cities, have crossed all limits. In the next two or three years, the housing market will therefore experience moderate adjustments. Housing prices will fall slowly and trading volume will increase at a speed below the average.

          The negative impact of the "bubble" burst on economic growth would be limited to within 2 percentage points, marked by falling investments in the real estate sector and overcapacity of upstream industries.

          The real economy, compared with the property market, is becoming more attractive. Although because of short-term economic fluctuations the real economy is faced with overcapacity, China has been gradually consuming the accumulated excess capacity since 2008. The moderately easy monetary conditions are expected to end, with the scale of trade surplus declining systemically and the contribution of initiative credit creation reducing gradually.

          The subsiding of the factors supporting the real estate "bubble" means it has reached an advanced stage, a stage where it is highly likely to burst because a short-term adjustment with a sharp drop is not at hand.

          First, there will not be any change in ample liquidity in the short term. With tightening real estate financing boundaries, declining trade surplus and mounting pressure of inflation, liquidity cannot lead to immediate shortage as in 2008. Therefore, housing demand is not expected to contract sharply.

          Second, the banking system is unlikely to collapse or to limit credit issuance strictly in the short to medium term. So the housing market will not follow the trend seen in the US.

          Third, supply in the real estate sector is less stressful, and the adjustments of 2008 have made housing developers more prudent. Regardless of the base quota factor, the growth rates of real estate investment and new constructions are lower than the average. And corporate debt ratio and cash flow are stronger than in 2008. So as long as demand does not plummet, developers should be able to adjust supply by controlling the pace of development.

          I think this is the toughest regulation policy on the real estate market. Adjustments are expected in the tax policy, too. The housing market "bubble", especially in the country's first- and second-tier cities, has reached an advanced stage. So, it will create an impact on real estate sales and prices in the next one or two quarters. And, finally the government's new policy to rein in the housing market could be the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

          I tend to believe that in the next two or three years, the property market will experience a relatively slow adjustment, the growth of housing trading volume will be lower than the average level - say, 25 percent (while a certain growth rate could still be guaranteed) - and housing prices will see correction or slow but continuous decline. The situation will be somewhat like Japan's slow adjustment process after the 1990s.

           

          主站蜘蛛池模板: 黄色a一级视频| 伊人久久精品一区二区三区| 久久99精品久久久久久欧洲站 | 亚洲国产美国产综合一区| 激情伊人五月天久久综合| 国产日韩精品欧美一区灰| 亚洲成在人线AV品善网好看| 国产精品免费麻豆入口| 骚虎三级在线免费播放| 亚洲乱码日产精品m| 久久热这里这里只有精品| 久久婷婷大香萑太香蕉av人| 日本精品极品视频在线| 国产愉拍精品手机| 无码av最新无码av专区| 久久精品国产www456c0m| 性大毛片视频| 国产精品亚洲二区在线看| 免费人成视频网站在线18| bt天堂新版中文在线| 国产三级精品三级色噜噜| 国产色悠悠综合在线观看| 最近中文字幕完整国语| 国产综合精品一区二区在线 | 久久国内精品自在自线91| 国产女人高潮视频在线观看| vr虚拟专区亚洲精品二区| 亚洲精品熟女一区二区| 99国产精品一区二区蜜臀| 日本阿v片在线播放免费| 欧美自慰一级看片免费| 亚洲a∨国产av综合av| 午夜成人亚洲理伦片在线观看| 国产精品一区二区三粉嫩| 国产精品人妻熟女男人的天堂| 欧洲无码一区二区三区在线观看| 中文字幕v亚洲日本在线电影| 国内精品久久久久影院网站| 92精品国产自产在线观看481页| 国产免费午夜福利757| 天堂网av最新版在线看|