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Time to rethink regional security cooperation

By Zhang Tuosheng (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-03-31 07:43

East Asia does not have a unified multilateral security regime like the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and it will unlikely see such a system in the near future.

The existing security regime in East Asia can be divided into three categories: bilateral military alliances led by the US, with the US-Japanese alliance the axis; coordination and cooperation among major powers; and multilateral dialogues and forums.

Coordination and cooperation among major powers is likely to be the key to maintaining regional peace and security for some time to come, making relations among China, the US and Japan very important not only for the region, but the rest of the world. Hence, the future of any regional alliance or multilateral dialogue would depend on trilateral ties.

Five factors are pushing the three countries toward security cooperation.

The first is the global financial crisis. It has had an overwhelming effect on the three countries' security agenda.

China and Japan hold the lion's share of US Treasury bonds, and as the top economic powers, the trade and financial ties between the three countries are pretty close.

Since the global financial crisis has placed them all in the same boat, they have no choice but to strengthen cooperation to safeguard their economies, as well as lead the world out of the economic mess.

Second, non-traditional security challenges, including those of the environment, climate change, energy, terrorism, and contagious diseases, call for cooperation among the three top countries. And though they still disagree over these issues, their fundamental interests are pushing them toward an understanding.

Third, cross-Straits ties have thawed after Ma Ying-jeou became the leader of Taiwan. The mainland and Taiwan have made concerted efforts to ease the situation across the Taiwan Straits, and would continue to do so for peaceful development. Since the US and Japan have welcomed the changes, the negative effects of the Taiwan question, which had been creating frictions and hampering cooperation between China, the US and Japan, have been mitigated.

Fourth, at the end of 2006, China and Japan bid goodbye to a turbulent era and entered a stage of relative stability. Though ties among them and the US are still weaker than they were in the 1970s and '80s, the depth and expanse of their cooperation have greatly increased. Cooperation, stability and balance are the trend of today and will intensify security cooperation.

Fifth, the Barack Obama administration is giving priority to "smart power", multilateralism, dialogue and others' opinions. The administration is turning its focus to the Asia-Pacific region, especially East Asia, and seems determined to be part of multilateral security dialogues and promote the Six-Party Talks. And this new orientation in US foreign policy is likely to help China, the US and Japan cooperate on security.

So what should the three countries do to seize the opportunities?

One, they should hold a trilateral security dialogue as early as possible that could serve as a mechanism to intensify cooperation, narrow their differences and avoid frictions. Developing confidence-building measures and strengthening cooperation in non-traditional security could be the two major topics of their discussion.

Once a trilateral security dialogue starts, it would not only enhance security cooperation among the three countries, but also help strengthen relations between China and the US-Japanese alliance.

Two, the three countries should join hands to advance the Six-Party Talks.

The tasks in the second stage of the talks, including disabling the nuclear facilities of and offering energy aid to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), should be completed as soon as possible.

It would clear the road for the third stage of talks focused on nuclear rollback, and help restore peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Three, after dispatching their navies, under the auspices of the UN, to combat Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean, the three countries should now work jointly to make international sea routes safer.

Four, next year will be the 50th year of the US-Japanese alliance and the two countries will make every effort to strengthen it.

The US and Japan have redefined this alliance, creating a confrontationist attitude toward China.

But the changed ground realities, China hopes, will see the alliance change from a mainly military organization to a political-military one. It is expected, too, that the alliance will strengthen cooperation with China and other regional powers, and thus contribute to regional peace and stability.

But for that to happen, the alliance has to first declare that it is defensive in nature, make non-traditional security issues its core task, and accept China as a cooperative partner rather than a country to guard against.

Five, the three countries should deepen their cooperation in arms control, disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation because Obama is different from George W. Bush in his outlook on the three issues and put them on his agenda.

Once that gets started, the three countries could start narrowing their differences on the anti-missile issue.

Though the opportunities to strengthen security cooperation should be seized, we have to admit the process is not without risks and uncertainties. Let's see what they are.

First, trade protectionism, a trait linked more to the Democrats than the Republicans, is not yet history in the US. The three countries, especially China and Japan, should try to prevent its return.

Second, the Taiwan question could still create frictions between China and the US and Japan.

US arms sales to Taiwan last year were a setback to the ties between Chinese and US armies. If the US does not honor the declaration in the Sino-US 817 Communiqu and stop selling arms to Taiwan, or the US and Japan seek to strengthen military ties with Taiwan, it could lead to major friction between China and the other two countries.

Third, it is still not clear whether the US' focus on East Asia would be to seek cooperation on an equal footing or to re-assert its dominance in all fields.

Fourth, the recent diplomatic row between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, and the stand-off between China and US ships in the South China Sea are reminders that maritime disputes are difficult to resolve and will continue to harm diplomatic ties.

And last, the way the DPRK's satellite launch is dealt with will test the prospects of Sino-US-Japanese security cooperation.

The author is director of the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies.

(China Daily 03/31/2009 page6)