Debate on robots and jobs heats up

Some argue that the advances in technology will lead to more posts

WASHINGTON - Are robots coming for your job? Although technology has long affected the labor force, recent advances in artificial intelligence and robotics are heightening concerns about automation replacing a growing number of occupations.

Of 700 occupations in the United States, 47 percent are at "high risk" from automation, an Oxford University study concluded in 2013.

A McKinsey study released this year offered a similar view, saying "about half" of activities in the world's workforce "could potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies."

Still, McKinsey researchers offered a caveat, saying that only around 5 percent of jobs can be "fully automated".

Another report, by PwC this month, concluded that around a third of jobs in the US, Germany and Britain could be eliminated by automation by the early 2030s.

But experts warn that such studies may fail to grasp the full extent of the risks to the working population.

"The studies are underestimating the impact of technology - some 80 to 90 percent of jobs will be eliminated in the next 10 to 15 years," said Vivek Wadhwa, a tech entrepreneur and faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University in Silicon Valley.

Hebrew University of Jerusalem historian Yuval Harari writes in his 2017 book Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow that technology will lead to "superfluous people" as "intelligent non-conscious algorithms" improve.

"As algorithms push humans out of the job market," he writes, "wealth and power might become concentrated in the hands of the tiny elite that owns the all-powerful algorithms, creating unprecedented social and political inequality."

Others disagree. Boston University economist and researcher James Bessen dismisses alarmist predictions, contending that advances in technology generally lead to more jobs, even if the nature of work changes.

His research found that the proliferation of ATM machines did not decrease bank tellers' employment in recent decades, and that automation of textile mills in the 19th century led to an increase in weaving jobs because it created more demand.

Former president Barack Obama's council of economic advisors also warned last year that most jobs paying less than $20 an hour "would come under pressure from automation."

Although the net impact of robots remains unclear, tech leaders and others are already debating how to deal with the potential job displacement.