Stability: China's approach to the future

Amid global uncertainty, the world could see a shift in where it looks for guidance - away from the West

Most of the world's hopes for the outcome of the forthcoming annual meetings of China's lawmakers and political advisers can be summed up in three words: stability, stability, stability.

Global uncertainties prompted by the election of Donald Trump as US president and the rise of nationalism in Europe have spread beyond the West to ruffle an already shaky international order.

Amid the garbled messages of Trump's first 100 days in office, it is impossible to predict how far his threat of a return to protectionism will be realized and how far such a stance might go toward a deterioration of relations with Beijing.

The danger of US isolationism is that its impact would not be isolated but would affect the rest of the world in terms of trade, economic progress and security.

Trump's victory has prompted a revival of the well-worn cliche that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold. It is borrowed from Austria's Prince Metternich, who coined the original in the 19th century when it was France doing the sneezing and Europe catching the cold. The modern adaptation of Metternich's phrase is in itself a handy reminder of the fate of empires.

A 21st century Metternich might propose that the continued good health of China is now the determining factor in the well-being of its global partners. Therefore, the guidance on future policy that will emerge from the two forthcoming annual sessions will be closely watched in foreign capitals.

Western politicians are among those who have already welcomed President Xi Jinping's renewed commitment to globalization and international trade, while Asian leaders have welcomed Beijing's moves to fill the vacuum created by the US abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

As Pakistan's Ambassador to China, Masood Khalid, told China Daily recently: "China's march toward progress and prosperity will not only improve the lives of Chinese people but also provide valuable impetus to global development."

In the West, current attention on the evolution of policy in China is focusing overwhelmingly on economic issues. Economists and analysts will be dissecting the speeches of Chinese leaders to study such issues as the effect of domestic stimulus measures and the outlook for growth.

Foreign investors will be looking for further details on the assurances expressed by Beijing that China will focus on stable development of its capital markets in 2017, while pressing ahead with opening its markets to foreign companies.

There has been no shortage of predictions about what is in store. A survey of economists by Bloomberg News revealed a shared expectation that China would set lower economic growth and monetary expansion targets this year as part of efforts to curb excessive credit growth.

The report quoted Yao Wei, chief China economist at Societe Generale, as saying: "Beijing will try to stay on the growth path in 2017. Stability will be once again the main focus."

Goldman Sachs, predicting modest deceleration of growth in the Year of the Rooster, said: "Chinese policymakers are focused on stability ahead of the upcoming leadership reshuffling."

There's that comforting word "stability" again.

Some observers are suggesting that in light of policy developments in Washington the "Chinese model" may come to replace the one that the US has sought to impose.

Sebastian Heilmann, president of the Mercator Institute of Chinese Studies in Berlin, recently told The New York Times that he had changed his mind on the issue of whether China could serve as a model for others.

"For many years, I would have said no," Heilmann said, "but many countries are struggling with how to deal with pressing basic problems like maintaining internal security, building physical infrastructure and providing jobs. These are the basis of populist movements around the world."

China, he said, was now often cited as an example of how to deal with things differently.

"China's experience," he said, "is thus a permanent question mark for the world when they ask if the Western model is the best."

The writer is a senior media consultant for China Daily.