By Yang Xiuna, China Development Research Foundation

Research Report, No.185, 2019 (Total 5685)

2019-10-21

Abstract: Based on CHIP data and statistics from National Statistics Bureau and EU Statistics Bureau, this paper defines and estimates the size of China’s middle-income group with the standards of developed countries, makes international comparisons, and further analyzes its ways of growth. The proportion of middle-income groups in China had rapidly increased from 1% in 2002 to 28.2% in 2018. Although the proportion is still far lower than that of developed countries (about 70%), the absolute number is quite considerable. The number had reached nearly 390 million in 2018, about 1.05 times the number of middle-income earners in the EU in the same period and 1.2 times the total population of the U.S. Household registration type, parents’ jobs, education level, birth place and other uncontrollable birth background have a significant impact on one’s probability of becoming a middle-income earner. People of different household types have different paths to become middle-income earners. While adopting measures to expand the middle-income group, the government needs to pay special attention to those people with disadvantaged backgrounds so that they can get an equal access to becoming members of middle-income earners.

Key words: middle-income group, the standard of developed countries, size, characteristics, growth path