By Zhuo Xian, Research Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy, DRC；Huang Jin & Wang Zhilong, Beijing Jiaotong University

Research Report, No.155, 2019 (Total 5655) 2019-9-5

Abstract: In the first half of 2019, the US import and China’s export had jointly generated a trade substitution effect. In order to offset the decline of export to the U.S., China increased the export volume of high-end consumer goods and capital goods to the EU and intermediate goods to developing countries. Due to US tariff increase, the share of China’s ICT (information and communications technology) products and labor-intensive products exported to the U.S. has dropped by a big margin whereas that of electrical equipment and domestic appliances have increased in spite of the adverse situation. In the short term, the trade frictions between Chin and the U.S. will reduce China’s comparative advantage in the global industrial chain and speed up the restructuring of industrial chains including bags, suitcases, shoes, hats, household products and mobile phones. In the mid-to-long term, the US imports price reversal shows that the global industrial chain is inclined to bypass China and form a new “closed loop”, and the competitiveness of “Made in China” might face huge challenges. In a bid to consolidate and enhance China’s position in the global trade and production network, we need to further expand the potential of export to the markets of other countries, stabilize the industrial chain of the domestic market, maintain industrial competitiveness with a high level of openness, and upgrade the manufacturing industry through digital technologies.

Key words: Sino-US trade frictions, industrial chain, transfer