By Wang Qing, Research Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Research Report, No.148, 2019 (Total 5648) 2019-8-27

Abstract: In the first half of 2019, there was a rapid decline in car sales, which was a combined result of the market performance and the implementation of macro-economic policies. Viewing from the mid-to-long term development, China’s car market will shift from a relatively mid-to-high growth to a relatively mid-to-low growth, but car demand will still maintain a certain growth space. In the short term, it is predicted that the decline of car sales in the second half of 2019 will be eased, but a sharp rebound is not in sight, and car sales are expected to decrease by 3% to 5% compared with the previous year. With the gradual recovery of the market, the actual growth will continue to rise and return to the potential growth rate. It is hoped that the normal growth of car sales could be materialized by 2020. At present, efforts need to be made to maintain smooth performance of macro-economy and relevant policies need to shift from stimulating the short-term growth of the market to driving incremental expansion by adjusting the stock structure. In terms of policy measures, we need to focus more on promoting structural optimization, coordinating policy objectives and actively cultivating new growth areas. And we need to give priority to invigorating existing stocks and maintaining a smooth market performance through both long-term and short-term policy measures.

Key words: car, consumption, prediction, policy options