By Zhou Lin & Cheng Guangyan, Research Team on “The Estimation of China’s Peak Food Demand and Countermeasures” , Research Department of Rural Economy, DRC

Research Report No.37, 2016 (Total 1512) 2016-08-18

Abstract: Population growth and the transformation and upgrading of dietary structure will witness a peak food demand in China by 2030, which will pose great challenges to China’s food security. The output growth of meat and dairy products lags behind the demand increase rate, and the gap between supply and demand of meat and dairy products under the current growth rate will continue widening. Growing demand for animal products has resulted in a rapid increase in forage grains demand, and due to the replacement of energy, the demand for provision will decrease. If structure of planting industry is not adjusted in time, there will be food surplus caused by the shortage of forage grains in the future. Therefore, in order to guarantee food security, studies relating to the changes in residents’ food consumption demand and features of its structure need to be strengthened, the structure of agricultural production should be adjusted and planned rationally in a demand-oriented manner, and the protection and support for major agricultural products should be enhanced, and the overseas strategic framework of agricultural products supply chain should be advanced. In addition, under the pressure of large inventory buildups, efforts should be made to protect potential production capacity and adjust the short-term balance between supply and demand through crop rotations and land retirement system.

Key words: grain, peak demand, the gap between production and demand, countermeasures