By Jia Shen, Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy of DRC

Research Report No 108, 2015 (Total 4793)

Abstract:

The economic structure transformation of most economies in the world generally follows the rule that the share of primary industry keeps dropping, while the proportion of the secondary industry shows a trend from rise to decline and that of the tertiary industry continues to increase. Compared with the early movers and the successful catch-up economies, economies that experienced middle-income trap embraced a services-dominated economic structure even before its industrialization is not fully developed, thus leading to an early slowdown in technological advance and productivity. Besides, due to the strong “self lock-in effect” resulting from the employment structure propelled by low-end services, there will be a long-term stagnation both in economic structure transformation and economic growth. In recent years, China has witnessed the transitional stage for economic transformation. During that period, China should draw on experience from other countries, have a clear understanding of the current situation and risks relating to structure transformation, set up rational targets and formulate relevant industrial policies, so as to maintain a relatively smooth and swift economic growth during the transitional stage of structure transformation.