一年一度的電影盛事——奧斯卡頒獎典禮將于美國當地時間2月25日晚舉行。究竟誰會成為最后贏家？雖然在謎底揭曉之前，一切都要算做未知數，但這并不妨礙我們大膽預測。至于預測結果是否會與謎底一致，就讓我們拭目以待吧。

This year's Oscars are likely to hold few surprises. But there's always hope for an upset. USA TODAY critic Claudia Puig offers her thoughts on what will win and what should win:

Actor

Should win: Ryan Gosling.As an idealistic but drug-addicted middle-school history teacher inHalf Nelson, Gosling gave the most complex and nuanced portrayal of all the contenders. Forest Whitaker was commanding and terrifying as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin inThe Last King of Scotland, but it was a showy role that required little subtlety. Peter O'Toole moved us in Venus, but we've seen this character before. Gosling's portrayal was convincing and compelling.

Will win: Forest Whitaker.He has swept the awards thus far for his memorably haunting portrayal of the charismatic tyrant. He's in a class of his own.

Actress

Should win:Helen Mirren.She has already won nearly every precursor award to the Oscar for her masterful portrait of, and astounding transformation into, Queen Elizabeth II. From the way she holds her pursed mouth to the acerbic asides that emerge from it, she fully embodies the ceremonial persona as well as the more vulnerable human beneath the crown. 

Will win: Mirren.It's nearly impossible to imagine the Oscar going to anyone else in this category. Though she was wonderfully wicked inThe Devil Wears Prada, Meryl Streep has won twice before, and this was not her finest role. The closest contender would bePenelope Cruz, who does her best work to date as a fiercely protective mother and conflicted daughter in Pedro Almodóvar'sVolver. Still, it seems undeniably Mirren's year.

Picture

Should win:Letters From Iwo Jima.Clint Eastwood's haunting World War II drama, told from the Japanese perspective, is masterfully made with moving performances, told in a spare, evocative style that brings into focus the tragic futility of war. It is the year's most powerful and significant film.

Will win:Little Miss Sunshine.This endearing gem of a film is the most beloved film of the year. Based on the Screen Actors Guild award and the way audiences have embraced it, this film seems poised to emerge the victor in a category of worthy contenders. The academy will show its admiration forThe Queenby honoring Mirren.TheDeparted'spopularity will translate to an Oscar for director Martin Scorsese.Babelmay be too dark.

Director

Should win: Clint Eastwood.Eastwood, who has already won directing Oscars forThe UnforgivenandMillion Dollar Baby, made two astounding films this year,Letters From Iwo JimaandFlags of Our Fathers, both about the battle at Iwo Jima from different perspectives. The former action star has grown more assured in his directing. The seemingly tireless septuagenarian's work will leave a mark on film history.

Will win: Martin Scorsese,The Departed. Shockingly, Scorsese has never won an Oscar, despite five previous nominations for directing such films asRaging BullandGoodFellas. Academy members, aware of Eastwood's recent win and the repeated Scorsese snubs, will give Scorsese his long-deserved Oscar. Though not Scorsese's best,The Departedis a fine film with a stellar cast and shows Scorsese to be a consummate director.

Supporting actor

Should win: Alan Arkin. It is tough to imagine how an oldcootwith a predilection for porn and hard drugs could be likable, even lovable, but Arkin pulled it off inLittle Miss Sunshine. He plays the curmudgeonly codger with sensitivity, humor and dimension. The scene in which he assures his tearful granddaughter (Abigail Breslin), a wannabe beauty queen, that she's pretty is one of the year's most touching movie moments.

Will win: Eddie Murphy.Murphy's front-runner status is a bit of a mystery, given his worthy fellow nominees, including Arkin,TheDeparted'sMark Wahlberg,BloodDiamond's Djimon Hounsou andLittle Children's Jackie Earle Haley. But voters seem to be inordinately impressed that the talented comedian can play a serious role. The box office success of Norbit could further seal his fate as this year's Oscar winner.

Supporting actress

Should win:Adriana Barraza.As the Mexican nanny who makes a series of questionable decisions inBabel, Barraza was the most indelible character in a complex drama filled with strong performances. Our heart goes out to the immigrant baby sitter, clearly devoted to the young children she cares for but torn in several directions as she copes with her difficult station in life.

Will win: Jennifer Hudson.Hudson, who plays the troubled Effie, ousted from the singing trio just as it becomes popular, is the best thing aboutDreamgirls. Her heart-wrenching rendition of AndI Am Telling You (I'm Not Going)cinched the nomination and likely win. A loser onAmerican Idol, she got a key part in the film version of the hit Broadway musical and stole the show from far more experienced actors. It's the kind of story the academy can't resist.

（USA TODAY.com）   

Vocabulary:    

coot: 傻瓜，笨人

（英語點津Annabel編輯）