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          Scenarios: Best case, worst case
          "Iraq has descended into chaos way beyond West's worst-case scenario" ...
          [ 2006-06-12 16:28 ]

          Scenarios: Best case, worst case

          Question:
          In this headline - "Iraq has descended into chaos way beyond West's worst-case scenario" - what does worst-case scenario mean?

          Answer:
          It means the situation in Iraq has become more chaotic than the worst West has imagined.

          A scenario by definition is a situation that could possibly happen but has yet to happen. The worst-case scenario is the worst possible chain of events that may transpire.

          Worst-case scenarios are often projected along side best-case scenarios, which, of course, refer to the best possible situation to expect.

          In case of the war on Iraq, a statement attributed to a White House spokesperson read thus: "In our best case scenario, regime change in Baghdad would trigger the spread of democracy and freedom throughout the Middle East. Awed by America's power, Muslim support for terrorism would evaporate, Palestinians and Israelis would make peace and global anti-American sentiment would evolve into gratitude and goodwill."

          Hmm, it has a ring to it that sounds like Disneyland, doesn't it?

          The worst-case scenarios over Iraq, on the other hand, range from prolonged war, heavy loss of life, mounting war cost to comparisons with "another Viet Nam" for America, plus more terrorist attacks and growing anti-American sentiments in the Muslim world.

          Enough of politics. When Yao Ming injured his foot back in April, all sorts of scenarios were projected by the media too, the worst imaginable in China being prolonged rehabilitation and Yao's failure to represent China at the FIBA World Championships in August.

          As of today, it appears something of a best-case scenario is coming to fruition - Yao has been making such a great progress that he may even join his Chinese teammates on court as early as later this month.

          Meanwhile, in the World Cup currently driving up beer sales and depriving Chinese soccer fans much sleep (as some games are played as late as 3am local time), England star Wayne Rooney (recovering foot a foot injury similar to that of Yao's) also gives people a lot of hope and/or fear for. The worst-case, or indeed the nightmare scenario for English fans is that the young Manchester United star misses the tournament entirely or that England fail to go far enough (in time for Rooney's return).

          On May 26, the day Rooney flew to Germany after the latest test allowed him to join the England squad but not to play any group matches, the London Times ran a Q&A with its soccer correspondent Matt Dickinson.

          "Q: What does this mean to England?
          A: It's good news in the sense of he's on the plane to Germany. There's a good vibe in the England camp this morning, but his participation in the tournament is still up in the air. The England camp are not celebrating but will be feeling optimistic.

          Q: Is it bad news or is this what was expected?
          A: It's what we expected. The best case scenario all along was that he might make the very end of the group stages. The more realistic view was that he'll make the knockouts. As things stand he is progressing well. If anything, this is a victory for the FA as Rooney will be linking up with them earlier. They've scored a political victory over Manchester United - public statements have suggested England and United have been working in harmony but there have been underlying tensions.
          ..."

          Another example, this time a report from CBS News (March 4, 2005) on AIDS:

          "AIDS could kill 80 million Africans by 2025: UN

          ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA - More than 80 million Africans will likely die of AIDS by 2025 if the international community doesn't do more soon to stem the epidemic, a UN report says.

          Another 90 million people in Africa - more than one in 10 people on the continent - could contract HIV infections by then, says the report released Friday.

          More than 25 million Africans already have the virus that causes AIDS. The disease has caused life expectancy in nine countries on the continent to drop below 40, according to the UNAIDS report, AIDS in Africa.
          ...

          Researchers present three possible case studies of how the AIDS epidemic in Africa could evolve, based on policy decisions by leaders in Africa and elsewhere.

          In their best-case scenario, international donors contribute nearly $200 billion US to an intense education and treatment campaign that would save 16 million people from dying of AIDS and 43 million others from getting HIV.

          Even with huge donations and better treatment, however, the agency says more than 67 million Africans are likely to die from AIDS.

          The worst-case scenario would see 89 million new cases of the disease in Africa in two decades.
          …"


           

          About the author:
           

          Zhang Xin is Trainer at chinadaily.com.cn. He has been with China Daily since 1988, when he graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University. Write him at: zhangxin@chinadaily.com.cn, or raise a question for potential use in a future column.

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