Kissinger predicts a more open China

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As the Communist Party of China undertakes its once-in-a-decade leadership transition in Beijing, many people in the United States wonder about the path China will choose and whether it will continue building on its reform and opening-up endeavors.

But for the old China hand Henry Kissinger, who has worked with every Chinese leader since the 1970s, the answer is clear: China will become more open and transparent and carry out the reforms it deems necessary in its own way.

The former US secretary of state and national security adviser expects to see transformations in the Chinese economy and society as well as foreign policy in the coming decade.

"I think it (China) will be more transparent, its legal system will be more predictable," Kissinger said during a recent seminar at a Washington think tank on China's leadership transition.

He said that one of the major transformations in China over the next 10 years will be the urbanization of more than 400 million farmers, which will test the country's infrastructure, economy and even traditional value systems.

Kissinger noted that China's future generation will be unique: most of them raised in one-child families and the first generation in hundreds of years that has never experienced upheaval.

In foreign policy, he said, as China spurs domestic consumption and depends less on exports, it will be less dependent on foreign markets.

"I can imagine a transformation, I think that is certain," he said, adding that the US should not expect China to follow its path.

"What we must not demand or expect is that they will follow the mechanisms with which we are more familiar. It will be a Chinese version, but it will be, I believe, more transparent."

The CPC made clear before the 18th Party Congress opened on Thursday that it is determined to further enhance reforms at all levels.

The Party will uphold the policy of reform and opening-up and set out specific goals, missions and guidelines for development, Cai Mingzhao, the spokesman for the congress, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

The reforms will include improving the economic system, market mechanisms, the basic distribution system, the socialist democratic system, cultural management and social management, he said.

According to Kissinger, "if you look at their own reform agenda, the things they have stated that they want to achieve in the next 10 years, you know that China will undergo enormous changes".

Kissinger said he believes that because China's new leaders will have their hands full with domestic issues, it is unlikely that Beijing will have "great foreign adventures or confrontations with the United States" on its agenda.

Because China-US relations have become more complicated in recent years, Kissinger urged both to exercise "patience and understanding" to avoid conflict.

"A conflict between China and the United States would be a disaster for both countries. And it would be impossible to describe what a victory would look like," he said.

Questions:

1. Since when did Henry Kissinger start working with Chinese leaders?

2. Why will China’s future generation be unique?

3. What did Kissinger say will happen if there is a conflict between China and the US?

Answers:

1. Since 1970s.

2. Most of them are raised in one-child families and they are the first generation in hundreds of years that has never experienced upheaval.

3. It would be a disaster for both countries and it would be impossible to describe what a victory would look like.

（中國日報網英語點津 Helen 編輯）

About the broadcaster:

Emily Cheng is an editor at China Daily. She was born in Sydney, Australia and graduated from the University of Sydney with a degree in Media, English Literature and Politics. She has worked in the media industry since starting university and this is the third time she has settled abroad - she interned with a magazine in Hong Kong 2007 and studied at the University of Leeds in 2009.