Should win: Ryan Gosling. As an idealistic but drug-addicted middle-school history teacher in Half Nelson, Gosling gave the most complex and nuanced portrayal of all the contenders. Forest Whitaker was commanding and terrifying as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland, but it was a showy role that required little subtlety. Peter O'Toole moved us in Venus, but we've seen this character before. Gosling's portrayal was convincing and compelling.

Will win: Forest Whitaker. He has swept the awards thus far for his memorably haunting portrayal of the charismatic tyrant. He's in a class of his own.

Actress

Should win:Helen Mirren . She has already won nearly every precursor award to the Oscar for her masterful portrait of, and astounding transformation into, Queen Elizabeth II. From the way she holds her pursed mouth to the acerbic asides that emerge from it, she fully embodies the ceremonial persona as well as the more vulnerable human beneath the crown. 

Will win: Mirren. It's nearly impossible to imagine the Oscar going to anyone else in this category. Though she was wonderfully wicked in The Devil Wears Prada, Meryl Streep has won twice before, and this was not her finest role. The closest contender would be Penelope Cruz , who does her best work to date as a fiercely protective mother and conflicted daughter in Pedro Almodóvar's Volver. Still, it seems undeniably Mirren's year.

Picture

Should win: Letters From Iwo Jima. Clint Eastwood's haunting World War II drama, told from the Japanese perspective, is masterfully made with moving performances, told in a spare, evocative style that brings into focus the tragic futility of war. It is the year's most powerful and significant film.

Will win: Little Miss Sunshine . This endearing gem of a film is the most beloved film of the year. Based on the Screen Actors Guild award and the way audiences have embraced it, this film seems poised to emerge the victor in a category of worthy contenders. The academy will show its admiration for The Queen by honoring Mirren. The Departed's popularity will translate to an Oscar for director Martin Scorsese. Babel may be too dark.

Director

Should win: Clint Eastwood. Eastwood, who has already won directing Oscars for The Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby, made two astounding films this year, Letters From Iwo Jima and Flags of Our Fathers , both about the battle at Iwo Jima from different perspectives. The former action star has grown more assured in his directing. The seemingly tireless septuagenarian's work will leave a mark on film history.

Will win: Martin Scorsese, The Departed . Shockingly, Scorsese has never won an Oscar, despite five previous nominations for directing such films as Raging Bull and GoodFellas. Academy members, aware of Eastwood's recent win and the repeated Scorsese snubs, will give Scorsese his long-deserved Oscar. Though not Scorsese's best, The Departed is a fine film with a stellar cast and shows Scorsese to be a consummate director.

Supporting actor

Should win: Alan Arkin. It is tough to imagine how an old coot with a predilection for porn and hard drugs could be likable, even lovable, but Arkin pulled it off in Little Miss Sunshine . He plays the curmudgeonly codger with sensitivity, humor and dimension. The scene in which he assures his tearful granddaughter (Abigail Breslin), a wannabe beauty queen, that she's pretty is one of the year's most touching movie moments.

Will win: Eddie Murphy. Murphy's front-runner status is a bit of a mystery, given his worthy fellow nominees, including Arkin, The Departed's Mark Wahlberg, Blood Diamond's Djimon Hounsou and Little Children 's Jackie Earle Haley. But voters seem to be inordinately impressed that the talented comedian can play a serious role. The box office success of Norbit could further seal his fate as this year's Oscar winner.

Supporting actress

Should win:Adriana Barraza. As the Mexican nanny who makes a series of questionable decisions in Babel , Barraza was the most indelible character in a complex drama filled with strong performances. Our heart goes out to the immigrant baby sitter, clearly devoted to the young children she cares for but torn in several directions as she copes with her difficult station in life.

Will win: Jennifer Hudson. Hudson, who plays the troubled Effie, ousted from the singing trio just as it becomes popular, is the best thing about Dreamgirls. Her heart-wrenching rendition of And I Am Telling You (I'm Not Going) cinched the nomination and likely win. A loser on American Idol , she got a key part in the film version of the hit Broadway musical and stole the show from far more experienced actors. It's the kind of story the academy can't resist.