Fillon races to the front in French rightwing primary

Francois Fillon heads into a five-day runoff campaign for France's conservative presidential ticket as favorite over opponent Alain Juppe after a stunning first-round vote result that ousted ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy from the race.

Market analysts said the outcome opens up fresh uncertainty about the result of next year's actual presidential election, potentially increasing a still remote risk that far-right leader Marine Le Pen can win it.

Before that though, Fillon is up against another former prime minister, Alain Juppe, in a second round of the primaries on Nov 27.

Juppe has a week to turn around his momentum-sapped campaign and win over the supporters of the other candidates.

With Fillon only six points short of the 50-percent threshold needed in the first round and Sarkozy on his side, it looks a tall order for Juppe.

However, any French voter can take part in the runoff on Sunday, and the views of pollsters and commentators have been much confounded in popular votes worldwide this year - not least Sunday's vote in which Fillon did far better than expected.

At stake is an almost certain place in the second round of next spring's presidential election, pollsters say, with the French left in turmoil under President Francois Hollande.

In that decisive poll in May, the conservative challenger would in all likelihood face National Front party leader Marine Le Pen.

A BVA poll in September showed Fillon beating Le Pen by a margin of 61 percent of votes to 39 percent, but recent opinion poll scenarios have not pitted him against her.

Perceived risk

With his socially conservative and liberal, pro-business platform, he lacks the broad appeal of the more centrist Juppe, and so arguably increases the perceived risk that Le Pen could take power.

"To some extent, we believe Fillon's lead introduces additional uncertainty when it comes to the presidential election," said Raphael Brun-Aguerre of JP Morgan.

A snap poll by Opinionway showed Fillon winning next Sunday's head-to-head contest against Juppe with 56 percent of support, but Juppe was not giving up.