Hopes that ROK will not deploy anti-missile system unrealistic

WHEN MEETING LOCAL LEGISLATORS in Seongju-gun, Park Geun-hye, president of the Republic of Korea, said that she might consider changing the location for the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system. But that does not mean she is changing her mind about deploying THAAD in the ROK, even though such deployment will damage Sino-ROK relations, Haiwainet.com says:

While Park and her pro-conservative ruling party have emphasized the importance of dispelling the threat of attack from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, some in the ROK worry THAAD might turn China and Russia into enemies of the ROK.

Seongju-gun residents, especially, oppose the deployment of THAAD in their neighborhood. That's why Park said she might reconsider where THAAD is deployed.

But it is unrealistic to expect Park to truly change the site for THAAD, because if Seongju-gun succeeds in opposing it, other places might protest, too. Thus Park and her government will very likely insist on going ahead with the deployment in Seongju-gun.

The expectation that Park might delay or even postpone deploying THAAD is even more unrealistic because Park and her government have already mobilized ample resources for it. If they change their mind, that would be a huge blow to Park's authority. Just as the spokesperson for Park announced, what can be discussed is another location in the same administrative area, not a reconsideration of the decision about deployment.

It should be noted, however, that as the ROK insists on deploying THAAD, it must be prepared for a sourer relationship with China.

THAAD will also make regional affairs more complicated, because it will start an arms race between the ROK and DPRK. Both sides have been blaming each other and strengthening their military capabilities. The ROK should not forget that the system will definitely lead to escalations of military facilities across the Korean Peninsula, which by itself will likely expose Seoul to more risks.

The only side that profits from the situation is the United States. By successfully distancing China and the ROK from each other, the US has secured its alliance with the ROK and the ground for the continued presence of US military bases there.