Recent IS battlefield reversals trigger terror attacks in Europe

Experts say extremists infiltrate with recent influx of migrants from Middle East

Recent battlefield reversals for the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria and Iraq mean the focus has shifted to individual terror attacks in Europe and elsewhere in the Middle East, security analysts said.

But the terror attacks in France, Belgium and Germany fall into three distinct categories, which are making it increasingly difficult for intelligence services to foil attempts. Terror attacks in the Middle East tend to be car and trucks bombs, whereas those in Europe are perpetrated by single assailants or small groups.

Analyst said the European attacks now fall into three distinct categories.

First, the well-coordinated assaults, such as the Paris incidents in November, carried out by trained fighters with proven links to extremist groups in Syria and Iraq. Inevitably, these attacks are claimed by the IS, often with accompanying prerecorded video statements by the participants.

Second, increasingly security services are dealing with so-called "lone-wolf" attacks, in which a single individual carries out an attack on his own. The Nice truck attack falls into that category, analysts said. IS recognizes this and often claims responsibility indirectly by hailing the death of a "martyr".

Third, there are what security forces call copycat attacks, where a person unknown to intelligence services, seizes on the moment to carry out an unplanned and impromptu assault. Some analysts believe the bulk of the recent German attacks fall into that category.

Raffaello Pantucci, an expert on terrorism from the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said some of the incidents bear the hallmarks of a "copy cat" attack.

A British-based security analyst, who requested anonymity, said it was clear that extremists based in the Middle East had used the recent influx of migrants from the area into Europe to infiltrate some of its trained operatives.

"IS itself generates an atmosphere of fear and violence, which coupled with disenfranchised and disaffected youths in immigrant populations in western Europe, provides a breeding ground for coordinated and lone-wolf attacks. It's very hard for intelligence services to track," he said.

France, whose aircraft are part of the US-led coalition that is conducting regular airstrikes against IS in Syria and Iraq, has suffered a series of terror attacks with an extremist theme since two French-born brothers of Algerian parentage burst into the offices of the Charlie Hebdo magazine, shooting 12 people dead.

Since then, gunmen staged an attack on bars, cafes, a theater and a soccer stadium in November in Paris, killing 130 people. IS said the attacks were in response to French air raids in Syria and Iraq.

In July, a Tunisian-born French resident killed 84 people and injured 303 in Nice.

"If the air attacks on Syria and Iraq continue, so will the terror attacks in mainland Europe. Troops on the streets and extra police won't solve it. Better coordinated intelligence will help though," said the British analyst.

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