Hezbollah movement faces hard choices

Hezbollah's ambitions are spreading far beyond its Lebanon home as the militant Shiite movement appears increasingly bent on taking on Sunni foes across the Middle East. It has sent thousands of its fighters into Syria and senior military advisers to Iraq, helped Shiite rebels rise to power in Yemen and threatened Bahrain over its abuse of the Shiite majority.

But the regional aspirations also are taking a heavy toll and threatening to undermine Hezbollah's support at home. The group has suffered significant casualties, there is talk of becoming overstretched, and judging by the events of recent days, even a vague sense that the appetite for fighting the Israelis is waning.

In the recent confrontation, Israel struck first, purportedly destroying a Hezbollah unit near the front line of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Among the seven dead on Jan 18 were an Iranian general, a top Hezbollah commander and the son of another former commander in chief. A heavy Hezbollah retaliation appeared inevitable.

Yet when it came on Jan 28, Hezbollah's revenge was relatively modest: two Israeli soldiers dead, seven wounded. The choice of location - a disputed piece of land excluded from a UN resolution that ended the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel - suggested to some that Hezbollah's mind remains focused on more distant fronts.

The Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, seemed to allude to criticism that Hezbollah's taste for foreign adventurism is weakening its appetite for fighting Israel. In his speech on Friday, Nasrallah said Israel had incorrectly thought that "Hezbollah is busy, confused, weak and drained. ... The resistance is in full health, readiness, awareness, professionalism and courage".

Complex equation

It is part of a complex equation for Hezbollah. On the one hand, many Lebanese resent the group for embroiling their vulnerable country in ruinous wars with Israel. But on the other, all shades of Muslim opinion see the Jewish state as a common enemy that Hezbollah forced, in 2000, to end an 18-year occupation in south Lebanon. In that sense even Sunnis, who along with Christians and Shiites make up a third of the country's population each, could see Hezbollah as a protector.

But that was then. Today, many increasingly look to Sunni-majority powers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt as their true backers.

"Increasingly, Hezbollah's leadership perceives itself as a Shiite Arab regional actor, placing its commitment to the Palestinian cause on a par with its mission as a defender of Shiite political and religious rights in the Arab region," said Randa Slim, a director at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

"The consequence for Lebanon is that at some point the Shiite underpinnings of Hezbollah's regional role will clash with the interests and demands of its non-Shiite, mainly Sunni compatriots."

Hezbollah positions in Lebanon also face repeated attacks, mostly by an al-Qaida-linked group, the Nusra Front. Their wave of bombings since late 2013 have killed and wounded scores of people.