WTO says intl trade to grow 3.7 percent

Global trade in goods will grow 3.7 percent this year after expanding a less-than-forecast 5 percent in 2011 as Europe's sovereign debt crisis continues to crimp commerce, the World Trade Organization said.

"More than three years have passed since the trade collapse of 2008-09, but the world economy and trade remain fragile," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said in a statement on Thursday in Geneva. "We are not yet out of the woods."

Developing economies will again lead goods trade growth this year, with a forecast 5.6 percent increase in merchandise exports, compared with 2 percent for industrialized nations.

Trade will recover in 2013, according to the WTO, with volume expected to expand 5.6 percent. The WTO used trade volumes rather than values for its assessment to avoid distortions caused by changes in commodity prices or exchange rates.

The prediction for 2012 assumes global output growth of 2.1 percent, down from 2.4 percent last year.

Risks to that forecast include a steeper-than-expected downturn in Europe, financial contagion related to the European debt crisis, surging oil prices and geopolitical risks, the WTO said.

Lamy warned that slow trade growth may lead governments to impose measures to protect their domestic industries.

"The WTO has so far deterred economic nationalism, but the sluggish pace of recovery raises concerns that a steady trickle of restrictive trade measures could gradually undermine the benefits of trade openness," he said.

"It is time to do no harm. WTO members should turn their attention to revitalizing the trading system and to ensuring such a scenario does not materialize."

The WTO, which initially forecast commerce would grow 6.5 percent last year, scaled back its prediction as the world economy cooled amid the European debt crisis.

Other "shocks" that held back trade last year included the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and floods in Thailand. The disruption of oil supplies in Libya cut African export growth by 8 percent.

Global trade grew a record 13.8 percent in 2010 after dropping 12 percent in 2009, the biggest contraction since World War II.

Bloomberg News in Geneva