As they say one must be careful about what one wishes for when the wishes come true, they may not be as good as we imagined them to be. Some people in Hong Kong overlook the economic support provided by the Chinese mainland to Hong Kong and wish for even more "political" freedom.

Actually it is possible to do a "control" experiment to see what a Hong Kong with more political freedom but without economic support from the mainland might look like. We may take a look at Puerto Rico, an island state in the Caribbean whose citizens are full-fledged US citizens with the freedom to travel and work anywhere in the US - in other words, maximum "political" freedom. However, the US does not give any economic or financial support to Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico is now flirting with bankruptcy.

To simplify it somewhat, the US also rules Puerto Rico under its own version of "One Country, Two Systems" formula. Puerto Rico was part of the war booty of Spanish-American War and resulted in Puerto Ricans becoming US citizens since 1917.

In political terms, Puerto Rico is an "unincorporated territory of the United States", which means that the US government is not responsible for the finances of Puerto Rico, despite the Puerto Ricans being US citizens. However, the Puerto Ricans are also denied any chance to vote in the US elections or have representations in the US Congress.

While giving the Puerto Ricans US citizenship but without the right to vote in US elections, the US has given the Puerto Ricans full autonomy to manage their financial and economic affairs. For a while in the 1970s and 80s, Puerto Rican economy did well as some of the polluting US industries such as petroleum refineries moved to this island near the US mainland and whose residents are American citizens but more importantly did not have the stringent US environmental laws.

Financial and economic "freedom" is good if you have good finances and you are afraid your bigger neighbor may take it away. However, "financial freedom" is not so good if you run into financial problems. Puerto Rico's problems are so severe now that its bonds have been downgraded to junk.

Puerto Rico is now experiencing the downside of "freedom without responsibility" that the bigger partner enjoys under "One Country, Two Systems"! When a "normal" full-fledged American city goes bankrupt e.g. Detroit now or even New York City in the 1970s, big Uncle Sam stands behind the bankrupt entity, give them time to "restructure" its debt and nurse the finances to its health. But under the US version of "One Country, Two Systems" the US is not willing to lend its shoulder to lift up Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico is not actually a poor territory either. It is poorer than any of the 50 states of the United States, but it is still richer than most Latin American countries which enjoy the freedom to "restructure" their finances on their own.

The example of Puerto Rico might not be considered relevant to Hong Kong of today which has very large reserves. But no economy can live on reserves alone.

However, in constitutional and practical terms Puerto Rico has lessons to teach Hong Kong in that it is not enough to have just a "big brother" in your hinterland but that the big brother must also be willing to guarantee your economic survival. Merely giving you citizenship and a passport without the financial guarantee that comes with it is not an ideal situation, as the Puerto Ricans are finding out in their version of "One Country, Two Systems" vis-a-vis the US.

As the year 2047 rolls around and a possible renewal of the "One Country, Two Systems" becomes due, Hong Kong people really should take a good look at the current plight of the far away and obscure Caribbean island of Puerto Rico for some lessons.

People in Hong Kong, which has one of the highest per capita foreign reserves in the world, might be thinking that Puerto Rico, teetering on financial ruin because the US big brother is not that interested in helping out, has nothing to teach them. But no economy can live on reserves alone. With a population that is aging and an economy that is stagnating Hong Kong might find that its "reserves" can be depleted faster than people can imagine.

So the doctor's advice to Hong Kong would be: "You are healthy now but you are not as young and energetic as you used to be. So don't indulge so much in those noisy, rowdy street parties. You might wake up from such heady political drunkenness to find yourself very much alone and vulnerable in this harsh world."

(HK Edition 05/03/2016 page8)