Tony Kwok warns that if the constitutional reform package is vetoed by the 'pan democrat' lawmakers this will have disastrous consequences for Hong Kong

When HSBC announced that it would consider moving its headquarters from London, its shares here quickly jumped over 4 percent. Were the investors concerned betting on the possibility that HSBC might return to its previous base in Hong Kong? I doubt it. I suspect one of HSBC's concerns is the political stability of Hong Kong. I believe they will be watching closely whether the now proposed constitutional reform package is passed by the Legislative Council (LegCo) in June. If it is vetoed by the "pan-democrat" legislators, the bank would probably prefer Singapore as their new headquarters, for fear of political and social unrest here in the coming years which could affect its operations.

The disastrous consequences Hong Kong may suffer because of such a veto include losing the confidence of the international business community and Beijing's trust to continue to place Hong Kong on its roadmap for economic development. Compounding these heavy blows to our economy, incessant political bickering will continue to waste LegCo's time and resources. This will seriously affect the government's efforts to improve our environment, people's livelihoods and other vital aspects necessary to maintain our reputation as a world city. As Financial Secretary John Tsang has warned, this could be the tipping point for Hong Kong to begin its downward slide.

The "pan-democrats" argue that after they veto the reform proposal, they can pressure the SAR government and Beijing to restart the five-step process under the Basic Law and would come up with a "better" election package. They must be naive to believe that the new Chief Executive (CE), elected by the old Election Committee, would be willing to reopen such a controversial subject during his term. Even if he did, would Beijing succumb to their pressure and retract the National People's Congress Standing Committee's decision announced on Aug 31 and accept their preferred version?

Hong Kong cannot afford the veto or the harm it will cause. Every Hong Kong citizen who cares about their future should speak up at this critical stage to push the "pan-democrats" to vote for the election reform package.

So what can be done by the government, the people and the "pan-democrats"?

The government should take every step to further explain the reform package. Many citizens are misled by the "pan-democrats" and certain media on a number of issues. For example, they wrongly believe that once the reform package goes through, this will be the final product. But the Basic Law clearly states that the election system can be reformed further. Furthermore, such a view lacks commonsense. Just imagine that we have three CE candidates standing for universal suffrage and undoubtedly they would be asked whether, if elected, they would take steps to enhance the election system. What answer would each give, knowing they want to get votes from the majority?

To ease public concerns, the government might consider declaring that if the reform package is passed, the Electoral Affairs Commission, chaired by a High Court judge, would conduct a comprehensive review after the election to come up with recommendations to make the future composition of the Nominating Committee (NC) more democratic.

Many people are misled by the slogans of the "pan-democrats" claiming that the NC is a "small circle" of people totally controlled by Beijing. This is far from the truth. The NC with its 1,200 members is to be elected from 38 constituencies, or sub-sectors, covering such fields as business, industrial, professional, social, labour, religious, sports groups, etc, which represent the overall interests of Hong Kong. This is based on the principle of "balanced participation". Indeed, a good CE is expected to look after not just the interests of the business community, but those from all sectors. Thus, as a candidate, it would not be unreasonable for him to hope to attract support from at least half of the members before he is eligible to be elected.

The problem is not the system, but the "pan-democrats" themselves because of their inability to get sufficient support from many sectors in society. After all, elected NC members are all respected citizens. With the introduction of secret ballots and the right of every member to make a choice regarding each preliminary candidate, if he or she so wishes, then how can Beijing exercise control over them? This is another case where the government should do more to correct public misperceptions regarding the committee.

Evidence abounds that the campaign by the "pan-democrats" for democracy is a cover for their plans to use Hong Kong as a base to subvert the central government. Examples include how they pocketed political donations from suspicious sources, most dramatically manifested in the massive financial and resource support required to keep "Occupy Central" going for almost three months. The identities of several of these offenders are well known. If they were put on trial the public would quickly learn how, year after year, the voters and even the non-voting public have been misled and used.

Since four more votes are needed to pass the reform package, we can target the five "pan-democrats" in LegCo's functional constituencies representing the education, information technology, social welfare, health services and accountancy sectors. As representatives of their constituencies, these five legislative councilors have every obligation to follow the majority wishes of their members. Therefore, surveys should be conducted covering the constituents concerned and hopefully, the majorities will emerge to pressure the respective legislators to follow their constituents' true wishes. Agreed, surveys were conducted previously but they were based on subjective and leading questions and returns were usually below 20 percent.

Similar surveys should be held in the districts of such moderate "pan-democrats" such as Frederick Fung Kin-kee (Kowloon West) and Ronny Tong Ka-wah (New Territories East) to give them a mandate to vote for the reform package, without fear of being branded "traitors"

Every "pan-democrat" who uses the veto will go down in Hong Kong history as an eternal sinner. Furthermore, they should all be voted out in the 2016 LegCo election!

The author was the first local Chinese to be appointed deputy commissioner of ICAC. After his retirement in 2002, he has been invited to 25 countries as international anti-corruption consultant.

(HK Edition 04/29/2015 page10)