District councilors in various districts have tabled motions in recent weeks to denounce the planned "Occupy Central" movement. The motions were passed with the vast support of the pro-establishment camp. But, in responding to the forceful and unreserved condemnations, the opposition accused the district councilors of acting like "Beijing lackeys," believing that such denunciations would only spur the public to support "Occupy Central".

It seems that a big battle is brewing in the political arena, with both camps wanting to battle it out for power and control in the coming elections. While many community leaders have recently racked their brains to protect what they ought to treasure, I should be one of the few who highlighted the dangers of the "Occupy Central" campaign early this year. As chief convener of the Protect Central Campaign, I would like to look at the "Occupy Central" issue from a new vantage point.

As the great Japanese samurai, Miyamoto Musashi, says: "Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy, it's important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things." I tried to trace the roots of the problem and perceive what will happen after "Occupy Central".

I believe the movement is inextricably linked with the "invisible feeling". Unfortunately, a growing number of people feel overly disheartened as Hong Kong is becoming an M-shaped society amid intensifying urban poverty and cross-border conflicts. From the perspective of some early adults and youths, their inner stress of hardly attending to the feeling of "being an owner of Hong Kong" is becoming greater when there is a greater level of perceptions of the potential loss of power.

Their prejudicial attitudes would reinforce their anti-social behavior when they wrongfully assume that absolute democracy is a panacea for all the social problems. Some make post-judgments on some of their wrongful acts, such as discrimination and prejudice against mainland sub-groups, to defend their "self-elevated" privileges.

"Occupy Central" is the reaffirmation of such kind of selfishness and prejudices, and its resilience is based on the ability to embrace the "extremes" - while not becoming the extremes. Therefore, when some "pro-democrats" came out to form the Alliance for True Democracy and tried to put forward its draft proposal for the 2017 Chief Executive Election, many pro-establishment supporters, including senior politicians, might simply regard "Occupy Central" as a negotiation tactic that would not be practical.

However, as Hong Kong is becoming strategically important on the global political stage due to its proximity to the mainland and Southeast Asia, I've adopted a separate view of the "Occupy Central" and other separatist activities. Fortunately, the movement is just a "lonesome gun" as the local government has not initiated any consultations. Furthermore, the movement, by nature, is considered a "loser's game" and it's really hard to motivate Hong Kong people to invest their time and effort in something that's "absurd" and "unpromising". For any smart guy, a brilliant plan should be the one with "the best route to desirable ends with available means", not the opposite.

As Napoleon Bonaparte once said: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." It's not too smart to highlight all their weaknesses to help convert them into strengths. While it seems nothing is going to work, based on the limited intelligence of these advocates, they may be just a few millimeters away from overthrowing the Leung Chun-ying administration and making "One Country, Two Systems" ineffective. It is because in the post-Occupy period, when the violence could become a cultural norm, and many people, regardless of which camp they support, may regard the SAR government as something that makes Hong Kong "ungovernable", the political disintegration may happen and the opportunism may arise to turn against the current regime.

Though the chance of such a scenario is less than 10 percent, it's unavoidable seeing some opportunists go on fighting for their own interests in the coming elections. Therefore, in the coming few months, the SAR government is still vulnerable to potential attacks.

In a nutshell, "Occupy Central" is simply considered a loser's game in trying to set a tragic and depressing mood for society. As most Hong Kong people simply ignore the threat, it's of no practical value evaluating its numerical inferiority. In battle, I believe, victory will go to the best tactician who can unite different sectors, and significantly improve the public image. Though "Occupy Central" is nothing more than chaos, it could damage "One Country, Two Systems" and the SAR government. Self-confidence may not be enough when the road gets tough!

The author is Chief Convener, Protect Central Campaign.

(HK Edition 07/10/2013 page9)