Shipping containers sit at a dock in Victoria Harbour. The city's exporter confidence dropped further to 31.6, recording a new low amid worries about the global downturn. Jerome Favre / Bloomberg

Exports likely to fall in Q4, but to improve in 2013: HKTDC report

Hong Kong's exporters remain pessimistic towards all markets in the fourth quarter, with the benchmark confidence index dropping further to a new low of 31.6 - far below the 50 boom-bust threshold - amid lingering worries about global downturn, increasing protectionism and escalating geopolitical tension, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.

Although exports are expected to pick up notably next year, negative sentiment still dominates the city's exporters these days, as the HKTDC Export Index, which measures current export performance of Hong Kong traders and gauges their near-term prospects, has slipped to a reading of 31.6 for the fourth quarter - down from 35.3 in the previous three months.

It also demonstrated that Hong Kong exporters' confidence continued to deteriorate in the second half in the year, after the index in the second quarter improved to 47.2 over 43 for the first three months of the year, according to the council.

A reading below 50 indicates a pessimistic sentiment, which also signals a contraction in overall exports or relevant sectors over the short term.

All major industries including electronics and clothing recorded readings below the watershed of 50 in the latest fourth quarter index except timepieces and machinery exporters who showed some resilience, according to Edward Leung, director of research from the council, who added that exporters' confidence in major markets including the Chinese mainland and European Union also showed slight decreases in the fourth quarter over the first nine months of 2012.

Large companies are less pessimistic than small and medium-sized enterprises of the gloomy economic environment, a survey by the council indicated.

Although production costs on the mainland, particularly labor costs, are expected to climb on an upward trend as the mainland economy is expected to bottom out next year, Leung said, together with some short-term measures to stimulate private consumption, consumption on the mainland is likely to be beefed up further in the future.

The council also forecasts that Hong Kong's exports in 2013 will grow by four percent in value and just one percent in volume terms.

Latest data released by the Census and Statistics Department showed that the value of total exports of goods for the first 10 months of 2012 as a whole rose by 1 percent over the same period last year, while the volume of total exports of goods in the first three quarters registered a year-on-year 2.2 percent decrease this year.

Hong Kong exporters also expressed optimism towards next year, with some 60 percent of them expecting sales to increase or to remain unchanged, while some 70 percent, on the other hand, expect unit prices to rise or remain unchanged in 2013.

The latest Hong Kong Economic Monitor published by Hang Seng Bank estimates that the city's total export value to rise 6 percent in 2013, compared with the estimated 1 percent growth this year and the 10.1 percent expansion registered in 2011.

Export is expected to post sustained recovery in 2013, according to the bank. As the International Monetary Fund projects the global economy growth will accelerate from 3.3 percent in 2012 to 3.6 percent next year, the faster global economic recovery will translate into larger export growth in Hong Kong in 2013, said the Hang Seng Bank.

litao@chinadailyhk.com

(HK Edition 12/08/2012 page2)