Shoppers look at new arrivals on display in a shopping center in Hong Kong. AFP

HONG KONG: The city's retail sales in April probably fell 6.9 percent by value from a year earlier, declining for a third straight month although at a slower pace than in March, raising some hope that the economy could be close to bottoming out, a Reuters survey shows.

Retail sales in March declined 7.7 percent from a year earlier by value and 9.3 percent in volume terms.

The survey forecast an 8.1 percent fall in the volume of April sales.

Consumer spending has been hit by rising unemployment, which has surged to 5.3 percent from 3.2 percent last summer as the economy slipped into recession.

Tourism, which accounts for 20-30 percent of retail sales, is also weak. Visitor arrivals in April rose just 0.8 percent from a year earlier.

"Business conditions for retailers are unlikely to improve substantially anytime soon. Rising unemployment and falling incomes will continue to undermine local spending," said Joanne Yim, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank.

"We expect retail sales volume to decline 8 percent for the whole of 2009 and see risk to the downside."

On Tuesday, the government announced an additional $2.2 billion fiscal stimulus package to try and shore up the economy, which provides some relief for consumers in the form of temporary tax exemptions and waivers on bills for public services.

But economists doubt it will trigger a rebound in consumption, as consumer confidence is likely to remain depressed until the overall economy picks up.

Hong Kong's recession deepened in the first quarter as exports dived more than 22 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter - their worst performance since the 1950s - and private consumption expenditure shrank 5.5 percent.

Data released Tuesday showing April exports fell by a less-than-expected 18.2 percent raised some hope that the economy was bottoming out. However, it will take time to recover, which means wage growth will be limited and more job losses are likely, analysts say.

Consumers are cutting back on purchases of items like cars, sales of which plunged 32.6 percent in March, and furniture, sales of which fell 14.9 percent in March.

They will have more spending power following the government's new stimulus package, released on Tuesday.

The government said it would raise a one-off income tax cut announced in the annual budget in February to 100 percent from 50 percent with a ceiling of HK$8,000 ($1,026) and extend an exemption on quarterly property rates, a form of tax.

Economists, though, say consumers tend to save rather than spend money from tax cuts and argue that giving out cash coupons as Taiwan has done would have been a better way to revive consumer spending.

Reuters

(HK Edition 05/30/2009 page2)