But dismissing it as a failure could be a mistake.

What's changed in the week since the mostly rural supporters of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra began their "million man march" into Bangkok?

Thaksin's red-shirted protesters, vilified as a thuggish mob after their street insurrection in Bangkok nearly a year ago, has won some credibility as a non-violent political movement that is in the fray for the long haul, several independent analysts said.

The "red shirts", trying to force Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to call an early election, splattered gallons of their own blood outside his residence on Wednesday in a dramatic demonstration to show their "sacrifice for democracy".

But the public relations stunt, which drew howls of outrage from public heath professionals, put them no closer to polls that must be held by the end of 2011.

They are well placed to win any election anyway - Thaksin-affiliated parties have won every election the past decade - and that could herald deep change for Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy and its recent surge of investors.

"The size of the protest, the show of emotion and discipline, has been impressive, and Thai people will have got the message quite strongly," said Chris Baker, a Thailand-based author who has written several books about Thaksin.

"The tendency to dismiss the 'red shirts' will diminish from this point on. There's an upsurge that's really a lot bigger than people imagined, and anyone who says this protest was a failure is just kidding themselves."

Federico Ferrara, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, said the rally could garner some support from Bangkok's politically powerful middle classes by softening the image of a movement widely blamed for Thailand's worst street violence in 17 years last April. "A mobilization of this number of people from the provinces, against a scare-mongering government that did everything in its power to stop them, is somewhat unprecedented," he said.

"They've been portrayed as barbarians coming to tear up the capital, but that didn't happen. They came to Bangkok to show they're legitimate. Mission accomplished."

However, in a front-page analysis on Wednesday, the anti-Thaksin Nation newspaper countered that view, suggesting the "red shirts" lacked coordination and were becoming increasingly divided, with Thaksin not totally in control.

Fractious movement?

"His entire political movement had been fractious but the problems may become glaring once the 'red shirts' make their retreat," it said. "Many of the 'red shirts' will be going home not quite knowing what they were in the city for."

In the near term, the peaceful rally and the "red shirts" shift in philosophy toward non-violence give a green light to investors betting Thailand's export-fueled economic recovery will propel further gains in a stock market that has surged 73 percent in the past 12 months.

Charl Kengchon, economist at the Kasikorn Research Center, says the central bank may bring forward an expected interest rate rise that could have been delayed by unrest.

Another Kasikorn economist, Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, said the political situation had improved and her economic growth forecast for this year would be revised upwards from 3-4 percent.

"If the protest takes only a week and will not lead to a change in government, it's likely that we will raise our growth forecast to 3.5-4.5 percent as economic fundamentals are quite positive," Pimonwan said.

As a sign of investors' enthusiasm, Thai stocks - among the cheapest in Asia - leapt nearly 2 percent on Wednesday, supported by aggressive buying by foreign investors who have snapped up $900 million of Thai shares in just over two weeks.

Reuters

(China Daily 03/18/2010 page11)