Ex-UN envoy predicts lasting insurgency
(AP)
Updated: 2005-12-22 08:23

The insurgency in Iraq will last at least five years, Britain's former envoy to Baghdad said Wednesday, predicting that the U.S.-led coalition would still have at least 100,000 troops in the country in 2007.

A combination of foreign terrorists, Sunni extremists and Saddam Hussein loyalists could continue fighting for several years, said Sir Jeremy Greenstock, who was Britain's U.N. ambassador before the war and stepped down as London's senior representative in Baghdad last year.

"I think (the insurgency) has got at least five years of life, because there are men and there are materials," Greenstock said in an interview with Sky News channel's World News Tonight show.

It was not clear if he meant the insurgency could last five more years or was counting from the start of the war in 2003.

Britain's former envoy to Iraq Jeremy Greenstock delivers a special address on 'Iraq and the Polarization of World Politics,' at the Asia Oil and Gas Conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in this Monday, June 14, 2004 file photo.[AP/file]

"There's motivation there from the Sunni insurgents, the leftover Baathists, the Saddamists and ... the al-Qaida franchise, there's men and materials there for several years of insurgency," he added.

Greenstock said he believed the U.S.-led coalition "would still be in six figures at the beginning of 2007."

"The numbers will keep on going down and it may be some years, really some years before the last coalition soldiers leave Iraq," he added.

However, he said the possibility remained that any future "demagogic" Iraqi government could ask foreign troops to leave the country.

"That could happen at any time, we haven't seen the nature of the new government being formed yet," he said.

"But they would be unwise just to shoo the coalition out, because they cannot handle the army and the police areas on their own 錕斤拷 it would give too much advantage to the people perpetrating violence," Greenstock added.

Nearly 160,000 U.S. troops are currently in Iraq, supported by just under 24,000 mostly non-combat personnel from 27 countries. Britain has the second-largest contingent with 8,000 troops in Iraq and 2,000 elsewhere in the Persian Gulf region.

Greenstock is a widely respected career diplomat who has remained loyal to Prime Minister Tony Blair's government since stepping down but has been critical of the war's aftermath.

He has not questioned the decision to take military action to topple Saddam but has complained that the U.S.-led coalition failed to plan adequately for after the war.

The former envoy has written a book about his experiences as U.N. ambassador and envoy to Baghdad, titled "The Cost of War." However, its publication is being held up while Britain's Foreign Office reviews it.