Taiwan's KMT to pick new leader Saturday
(bloomberg.com)
Updated: 2005-07-15 19:30

Taiwan's main opposition Nationalist Party will hold its first ever leadership contest tomorrow, with both candidates vowing to improve the island's relations with the Chinese mainland.

HISTORIC HANDSHAKE: CPC General Secretary Hu Jintao (R) shakes hands with visiting KMT chairman Lien Chan in Beijing April 29, 2005. [newsphoto] 

Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, 55, and "Parliament" Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, 64, are the sole candidates to become the next chairman of the party, also known as the Kuomintang. The winner is likely to run in the island's elections in 2008 to be the next Taiwan leader.

"This will be a crucial, sensitive test whether Taiwanese will elect a mainland-born Chinese as their chief, or whether such a result might cause a party split," said Liu Bih-rong, a political science professor at Soochow University in Taipei. Ma, though born in Hong Kong, is viewed on the island as a mainlander because his parents came from the mainland, while Wang is Taiwan-born.

Both Ma and Wang support the KMT's policy of seeking better relations with the Chinese mainland.

Lien Chan

Tomorrow's winner will replace Lien Chan as the leader of the Nationalists, which count 1.04 million members. Lien visited the Chinese mainland in late April, becoming the most senior Taiwanese politician to do so, and met Hu Jintao, general secretary of the Communist Party of China. Lien and Hu agreed to hold talks on improving economic, transport and military relations.

The KMT changed its system of picking its chairman in 2001 when Lien was selected by party members rather than by central committee members. He was the sole candidate. The party's previous leaders include Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek.

2008 Prospects

A July 1 survey by Era Television, a cable channel, said 37.5 percent of the 1,019 people surveyed believe a victory by Ma would help the KMT win in the next political contest with the Democratic Progressive Party, at county magistrate elections in December. About 28.3 percent said Wang would bring a bigger boost to the KMT. The survey had an error margin of 3 percent.

Taiwan businesses have more than $100 billion invested in the Chinese mainland, the island's biggest trading partner. Companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest made-to-order chip supplier, have sought greater access to the Chinese mainland, where customers and rivals are moving to take advantage of cheaper labor costs.

Taiwan authorities restricts some investments, including the most-advanced semiconductors and power plants, in part to prevent the island becoming too dependent on the mainland. Investment from Taiwan dropped 29 percent to $1.96 billion in the first five months of the year, Taiwan government statistics show.

Cross-Strait Policy

Analysts expect the newly elected chairman to follow Lien's cross-Strait policy and continue the KMT's opposition to many DPP policies in the island's "parliament". The Nationalist Party and its allies won 114 of 225 seats in the Legislative Yuan in December 2004, blocking efforts by Chen Shui-bian to control "parliament" for the first time.

``No matter who wins, the KMT is unlikely to cooperate with the ruling party in parliament and cross-Strait relations,'' said Philip Yang, a political scientist at National Taiwan University. ``It will be business as usual after July 16.''

Yang said tomorrow's result will be close. ``So far, no one can predict who will win the election,'' Yang said. ``Ma is popular, charismatic, while Wang has a good network, especially in southern Taiwan where most native Taiwanese live.''

``Vote for the right chairman, then we'll have hope in 2008,'' Ma said in a recent campaign stop. Ma's track record includes defeating Chen when they both ran for the post of Taipei mayor in 1998. Ma increased his 51 percent majority that year to 64 percent when he won a second mayoral term in 2002.

Regional Support

Wang, a lawmaker since 1976, is stressing his ability to tap regional voters' support. Wang was born in the southern county of Kaohsiung, near Taiwan's second-biggest city.

``Let the southern Taiwan kid win to secure our votes in southern Taiwan, then we'll have no problem taking back rule in 2008,'' Wang said Thursday.

``It can be seen as the primary election for the 2008 poll, although whoever wins still faces three challenges,'' National Taiwan University's Yang said. These are to hold the KMT together, consolidate its alliance with First People Party, Taiwan's third-largest political party, and win or at least maintain results in the county magistrate elections to be held in December, he said.

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