Dutch voters may reject EU constitution, following France
(Bloomberg)
Updated: 2005-05-31 15:25

Dutch voters may join France in rejecting the European Union constitution in a June 1 referendum, opinion polls show, underscoring concerns about loss of sovereignty among the oldest members of the 25-nation bloc.

A survey of 16,850 people yesterday found 53.2 percent of Dutch voters will reject the constitution, three days after France voted 55 percent to oppose it. The euro fell after the French referendum, reaching a seven-month low, on concern the vote will hamper integration of the region's economies.

European leaders including German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder urged nations to stand by plans to ratify the treaty even after France's rejection. A veto by the Netherlands, like France an EU founding member, may force them to seek a change of direction, said Lousewies van der Laan, founder and chairwoman of Better Europe, a committee campaigning for a Dutch "yes."

"If this constitution is not the answer, then we need a signal from the Dutch people about which direction we want to go," van der Laan said in a telephone interview from Amsterdam yesterday. "If the vote is 'no', then we have to look for solutions elsewhere."

The constitution, which creates a European president and foreign minister for the first time and gives more power to the European Parliament, must be ratified by all 25 members of the European Union by November 2006 in order to take effect.

Germany, Spain

So far, nine countries, including Germany and Spain, have approved it. Other votes scheduled for this year include Luxembourg, Poland and Portugal. A referendum in Britain, planned for 2006, may now be abandoned after Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday called for a "time for reflection."

The final Dutch opinion poll, by the Amsterdam-based Dutch Center for Political Participation, was conducted before the French referendum. It showed support for the "no" vote had fallen more than two percentage points from 55.4 percent a week ago. The survey was conducted from May 23 to May 29.

Dutch opposition to French and German steps to loosen the EU's budget rules, known as the stability pact, are part of the reason for resistance to the constitution, which is an expression of a broader discontent with European integration, said Jos de Beus, a professor at the University of Amsterdam.

"People feel that everything is going too fast, and it is too vague," he said. "The Dutch wanted a stable euro and a strict stability pact. They feel cheated."

'Uphill Struggle'

Michel van Hulten, a former member of the European Parliament and a coordinator of the "yes" campaign, said that the French vote makes a victory for the constitution in the Netherlands more difficult.

"There is no question but that there will be even more of an uphill struggle," he said in a telephone interview.

The vote on June 1 will be the first referendum in the Netherlands in 200 years. Unlike France, the results here are not binding, though all parties have agreed to abide by the vote, unless the turnout falls below 30 percent.

Ruud Koole, chairman of the Labour Party, an opposition party which is backing the constitution, said the results in France may cause a drop in the turnout in the Netherlands.

"I fear a low turnout because people say that the people have already decided in France," he said in a television interview. "If turnout does go down, I fear for the 'yes' vote."

When the French referendum was first proposed by Chirac in July 2004, polls showed 60 percent of the voters would approve it. Historically, Dutch voters have been supportive of pro-European issues.

European 'Superstate'

The Labour Party's Koole described the 'no' vote in the Netherlands as a reflection of people's fears of being swallowed up by a continually expanding EU. The Christen Unie party, which is backing the "no" campaign, even ran a three-minute television commercial showing a Dutch cottage trembling in an earthquake, as a picture of Queen Beatrix topples off a tabletop.

"People think that there will be a 'superstate' that will smother us," Koole said. "There is also debate about the euro, which in the Netherlands led to significant price increases. Finally, a lot of people feel excluded from European integration, and they want to express a 'no."'

In a statement issued yesterday, Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, criticized by "yes" campaigners for mobilizing too late in favor of the constitution, insisted that the Dutch vote will go ahead.

"I hope and expect that the Dutch voters will make their own independent choice," he said.

Van Hulten said there had been plans to invite politicians from other European countries to come to the Netherlands to campaign for the constitution. Given the size of the constitution's defeat in France, those plans have been called off, he said.

"In the present situation, it would unfair for foreign leaders to come in and campaign for a cause that has been already so badly damaged," he said.

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