Egypt to change constitution, Mubarak's place safe
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-05-09 21:35

Egyptian members of parliament have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to change the political landscape on Tuesday when they vote on a constitutional amendment opening presidential elections to more than one candidate.

But when their task is done, President Hosni Mubarak, 77 and in power for 23 years, can rest assured the job will still be his for the asking when Egyptians vote in September, politicians, diplomats and analysts say.

Under foreign and international pressure, Mubarak took the country by surprise in February by proposing an end to the old system where a parliament dominated by the ruling party chose a single candidate for the people to endorse by referendum.

The United States, which is campaigning for democracy in the Middle East, welcomed the proposal as a sign of positive change in the Arab world's most populous nation.

But 10 weeks of drafting and negotiating have resulted in an electoral system which excludes all the politicians who could plausibly mount a credible assault on the presidency.

"They (the government and ruling party) have aborted the whole process. It's one step forward and one step back," said Mohamed el-Sayed Said, deputy director of Cairo think-tank the al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.

The rules, expected to sail through the People's Assembly without amendment, require independent candidates to obtain the support of a prohibitively high number of elected officials from the two houses of parliament and local councils.

They will need, for example, endorsements from at least 65 of the 444 elected members of the People's Assembly, where the largest opposition group now has only 15 members.

Recognised political parties can field candidates easily this year but the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has tightly controlled for years the party approval process, carefully excluding from political life the Islamists widely seen as the strongest contenders for power.

After the flurry of interest in politics generated by the Kifaya (Enough) protest movement this year, many Egyptians have resigned themselves to six more years of Mubarak.

"Constitutional amendment? No one applies the constitution to begin with. The government does what it wants. The amendment won't make any difference and Mubarak will win anyway," said Mahmoud Fiky, a 52-year-old taxi driver.

RIPOSTE OF "NOT ENOUGH"

Others have rallied to the defence of the president, portraying him as a force for stability in troubled times. At a trade union meeting attended by Mubarak last week, loyalists took up a new chant to counter the Kifaya slogan. "Not enough, not enough, with Mubarak to the end," they cried.

But the demand for change has galvanised a hard core of activists into action and percolated into professional groups which for the past 50 years have steered clear of politics.

Judges, journalists and university professors have taken stands against the governments in recent weeks.

The ferment has also awoken the Muslim Brotherhood, the sleeping Islamist giant of Egyptian politics.

The Brotherhood, with thousands of committed organisers across the country, has staged by far the biggest demonstrations. The state has hit back by arresting some 800 members, including leading member Essam el-Arian.

Brotherhood leader Mohamed Mahdi Akef said on Sunday he was not seeking confrontation with the government. But after 50 years in the wilderness, opportunities clearly loom.

"The opportunities consist of a tattered, unpopular regime weathering perhaps the greatest challenges to its survival ... and friendly signals (to Islamists) from both the EU (European Union) and the United States," said Baheyya, a well-informed Egyptian blogger who does not use her real name.

President George W. Bush's administration has undermined Mubarak by saying it is not too worried about Islamists taking power in the Middle East as long as they are democrats.

Bush stirred the pot further at the weekend when he said international monitors should keep an eye on this year's presidential elections -- a proposal Egyptian officials have repeatedly rejected as a national insult.

Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif is preparing to confront that demand when he sees Bush in Washington next week, said an official who asked not to be named.

Mohamed el-Sayed Said predicted the government would try to ignore the demand. If necessary, it will play the nationalist card against foreign interference, which still has appeal in many sectors of the population, he added.

Analysts say the ferment remains mostly on the surface and the vast majority of Egyptians remain on the sidelines.

"If it's not Mubarak who wins it will be some other multi-millionaire and we will continue to suffer. We don't have any rights or any jobs and that's not going to change," said Mohamed, a 22-year-old student and street hawker.

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