US sees chance of peace hinging on Arafat successor
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-11-11 16:09

U.S. officials hope Yasser Arafat's death on Thursday will offer a new chance for Middle East peace but said it depends on who replaces him, how much power they wield and whether they have the legitimacy to strike a deal.

"I think we've got a chance," US President Bush said several hours before Arafat was declared dead at a Paris hospital. Afterward, Bush called it "a significant moment" for the Palestinians in their bid for peace and an independent state.

However, U.S. officials played down the idea of any quick, dramatic change in their own policy with the demise of the Palestinian leader whom the Bush administration viewed as a corrupt, untrustworthy failure and an obstacle to peace.

Instead, they point to the problems that have long stymied efforts to resolve the dispute -- with ending Palestinian violence against Israeli at the top of their list -- and the uncertainty of who will succeed Arafat.

"It really depends on what comes out of this and who's running the show," said one official who asked not to be named. "No matter how creative or how bold you want to be, as long as there continue to be suicide bombers blowing up buses in Israeli cities there's a limit to what can be accomplished."

"If you want to create a Palestinian state, there has got to be a responsible Palestinian partner," added a senior U.S. official who suggested it may be harder for a successor to make peace than for Arafat, whose status as the Palestinian icon might have persuaded his people to accept compromises.

There have been no serious peace negotiations since the collapse of former U.S. President Bill Clinton's efforts to broker a deal in 2000, which coincided with the start of the four-year old Palestinian uprising against Israel.

Two years into his presidency, Bush said Arafat had failed his people and decided to boycott him in the hope that new Palestinian leadership would emerge.

With the U.S.-backed "road map" peace plan all but dead, U.S. officials have pinned their hopes on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to withdraw from all settlements in Gaza and four in the West Bank to revive peace efforts.

INTERNAL STRIFE

U.S. officials and Middle East analysts fear internecine violence among the Palestinians if there is a power vacuum after his death and believe this could make it harder for Sharon to withdraw from Gaza. In addition, they are bracing for the possibility of increased attacks against Israelis.

But earlier this week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said he was "impressed" by the way Palestinian leaders have worked to maintain calm and to plan for the future since Arafat fell ill and was taken to Paris for treatment.

"It remains to be seen" whether new Palestinian leaders capable of choking off militant violence against Israel emerge, Powell said on Wednesday. "If that kind of leadership emerges ... then we stand ready to work with them."

Just when the United States might reengage no one, including Powell, is willing to hazard a guess.

Critics argue Bush has done little to help the Palestinians and that he undermined them by giving Israel assurances in the spring that it could not be expected to give up all West Bank settlements or to accept the return of Palestinian refugees.

Asked how hard the administration would work for peace, one U.S. official said: "I don't know. Frankly, I look at the landscape and I (ask) what's going to fundamentally change?

"The fundamental differences remain: the issue of settlements, of territorial contiguity, of the persistence of terrorist attacks and of a radicalized (Palestinian) movement ... I don't see any of those changing in any material way."

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