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          US reserve call-up for an Iraqi war may equal 1991's
          ( 2002-10-28 16:42) (7)

          If President Bush orders an attack against Iraq, the Pentagon has plans to mobilize roughly as many reservists as it did during the Persian Gulf war in 1991, when about 265,000 members of the National Guard and Reserves were summoned to active duty, administration officials and military experts say.

          Although officials have said the emerging war plan will probably call for fewer troops for a new offensive against Iraq than the Pentagon and the allies deployed in the first gulf war, there is one main reason the Pentagon would call up so many reservists in this case.

          Large numbers of Guard and Reserve troops would be needed to protect military bases overseas and at home. The troops, especially those in the National Guard, would also be expected to play an important role in protecting an array of potential terrorist targets in the United States, including power plants, transportation hubs, medical centers and factories. This would be in addition to whatever combat role some of the activated troops would be assigned.

          During the war in 1991, the American government did not have such significant fears of terrorist strikes against overseas bases or targets in the United States. This time, officials say, the threat of terrorist attacks would become more critical, rising above even the elevated threat levels since Sept. 11.

          One expert familiar with the Pentagon's planning said a significant difference between any new military offensive against Iraq and the earlier gulf war was "the need for greater force protection around the world" and a dramatically expanded role for the military in homeland security.

          Those jobs would fall not only to ground troops in the Army National Guard and Reserve. Navy and Coast Guard reserves would patrol the nation's maritime borders, and putting more fighter jets over American cities would require large numbers of Air Force and Navy pilots, ground crews and aircraft.

          In the days after the Sept. 11 attacks, the air patrols over American cities tied up about 11,000 Air Force and Navy personnel and 250 fighters and refueling or radar planes.

          Any new call-up of Guard and Reserve forces would come on the heels of a prolonged mobilization for defense of the homeland after Sept. 11 and for the war in Afghanistan. Guard and Reserve mobilization peaked at 77,455 people during intense fighting in Afghanistan. The number has dipped and risen over the months and was 58,133 last week, according to Pentagon records.

          In recent years, the roughly 870,000 members of the Guard and Reserves, who serve a minimum of a weekend a month plus two weeks a year, have become increasingly involved in long overseas operations, from hurricane relief in Central America to peacekeeping in the Balkans and patrols in the skies over northern and southern Iraq.

          Those deployments and the mobilizations after Sept. 11 ?including many lasting from 90 days to one year ?have created strains on families and employers, although Pentagon officials say recruiting and retention have not yet been affected.

          Processing a number similar to those called up for the war in 1991 would be a laborious process that, according to a Pentagon official, "would take more than a week or two" to complete. The overall call-up schedule would be held secret in advance, so as not to tip the Pentagon's hand before any attack that might be ordered by Mr. Bush.

          Guard and Reserve units and individuals would have to be notified. Medical experts would have to ensure they were up to date with all their inoculations. Then commanders would have to transport Guard and Reserve forces to their assigned missions at home or abroad.

          Senior Defense Department officials were briefed on plans for the Reserve call-up within the last 10 days, a Pentagon official said. No final decision has been reached because Mr. Bush has yet to decide whether to take military action against Iraq, the official said.

          A Reserve call-up is just one important variable that military planners are weighing as they refine war strategy for a possible confrontation with Iraq.

          The diplomatic dance going on in New York over details of a United Nations Security Council resolution governing the course of international weapons inspections in Iraq has a direct impact on the timing of troop deployments and, ultimately, the start of any offensive.

          Much of the heavy equipment recently deployed to the Persian Gulf region would probably remain while inspections were under way, because it is more difficult to move in bulk and with speed, according to Pentagon officials.

          But the troops sent for exercises, training or standard duty might rotate home if it appeared that an inspection cycle would run for a long period, with fresh fighting forces quickly sent in their place later.

          The military has prepared and even deployed substantial forces to the Persian Gulf region, but in ways intended not to interfere with the administration's efforts to build support among allies for action against President Saddam Hussein. The only slight pause in the pre-deployment timetable has been for units whose job is mostly logistics and support.

          But Pentagon officials also emphasized that Iraqi rejection of a resolution, or a speedy collapse of the inspection program in the face of Iraqi resistance, would probably accelerate the president's decision to use force. In addition, the United Nations may not agree on a resolution this week, something that could also alter the timetable for any offensive against Iraq.

          "Until we have a resolution, there is a lot of uncertainty," a Pentagon official said.

          The best time for combat in the desert is between December and March, and postponing any offensive until late spring or early summer would require an American-led coalition to fight in the searing heat of the Iraqi desert. The risk of chemical attack and the need to wear bulky protective gear makes that prospect especially unwelcome.

          While commanders say the American military could fight and win a summer war ?indeed, forces from the Army and Marines routinely train in the California desert ?the triple-digit temperatures could have a debilitating effect on troops and require large additional quantities of water for personnel and equipment.

          "Is it the biggest impact on people? Probably," a military official said, referring to the summer heat.

          The effect of heat waves shimmering through the atmosphere off the desert floor can interfere with the accuracy of optically guided weapons, but not those that are guided by satellite.

          Planners are also considering contingencies should Mr. Hussein throw obstacles up in front of allied forces moving toward Baghdad, from setting Iraqi oil fields aflame, as he ordered done in Kuwait a decade ago, to flooding the marshes of southern Iraq, near Basra.

          Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the head of the United States Central Command, was wrapping up a visit to the region this weekend, just as Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was beginning a short tour of the region, including meetings with leaders in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

           
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