Chinese experts on military actions in Iraq
( 2003-03-23 14:05 ) (8 )

Twelve years after the Gulf War, the military actions initiated by the United States have attracted world attention again, and Chinese experts have voiced their opinions on the strikes.

"It is distressing and regretful to see military actions when the people around the world are longing for peace," said Zhou Zunnan, a professor on international relations with the Foreign Affairs College.

"War to some extent is inevitable though it runs against the will of the people," said Professor Wang Baofu of the National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army.

Wu Xinbo, a professor with the Fudan University, said the military actions are not more than expected but those actions will cause heavy casualties among the Iraq people.

Chen Guangwei, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said: "The military actions will paralyze the administrative systems of Iraq's social, economic and natural resources and aggravate the suffering of the Iraqi people."

In addition to probably creating one to two million refugees, the military actions will bring about many unpredictable outcomes to Iraq, including ethnic problems, reconstruction and many other uncertainties.

As to the impact on the ecological environment, Gao Zugui of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations said " the advanced weapons used by the US troops will cause great damage to the natural environment."

"It will be even more disastrous if Saddam sets the oil fields on fire or uses biological or chemical weapons," he stressed.

As for the war's impact on the international political situation, Zhou Zunnan said that compared with the last Gulf war, the US-led military actions have won far less support across the world.

"What's worse, such unilateral actions will escalate the conflicts between the West and the Islam world, and will intensify the contradictions between the United States and those countries in favor of multipolarization," he said.

Gao Zugui maintains that the attacks are a scheme of the Bush administration to forge a new world structure, which will greatly affect relations among major powers. "That is why most major countries are against the military actions," he noted.

The experts also commented on the military actions from the perspective of the United Nations and the UN Security Council. Wang Baofu pointed out the unilateral military actions launched by the United States, bypassing the UN Security Council, definitely add doubt to many countries on the real intention of the actions.

Besides, as Wang warned, the actions will bring a negative impact on the authority of the United Nations and on the post-Cold War international order.

The United States' attacks on a sovereign nation without UN approval reflect its contempt on the international order, the international security system and the United Nations, and reflect the escalation of its unilateralism, said Shen Jiru, a political researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"The United States may win the war, but it will lose the support of the world," he added.

US military actions will also influence the Middle East.

Wu Xinbo said that with its military actions, the United States aims to further consolidate its hegemony in the Middle East and realize its ambition of redraw the political and strategic map in the region.

Shen Dingli, a professor with the American Studies Center of Shanghai-based Fudan University, said the continued military actions will arouse dissatisfaction among the Arab people.

"The power between Israel and Palestine will become even more unbalanced," he said.

"In such a case, if the United States further sided with Israel, it would arouse strong antagonism from the Arabs + the Palestinians in particular," he added.

The United States has taken quite a different attitude towards the development of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and Israel, although they are both Mideast countries, said Shen.

Its double standards and discriminatory behavior undermine its image and role in intervening in Mideast affairs, which will weaken its mediation efforts in Arab-Israel conflicts, he said.

As to the international economic situation, Gao Zugui said the attacks will surely hinder the recovery of the world economy and bring about much uncertainty to the international oil market. But he also indicated the impact will vary in accordance with the mode and scale of the war.

According to Xie Fuzhan, deputy director of the State Council's Development and Research Center, if the war does not last long, " the oil price will fall below 25 US dollars per barrel, and the world economy will not be much affected."

However, he warned, the possibility can not be ruled out that terrorist attacks might crop up in other parts of the world, which will shake the confidence of the US and other international investors and consumers and harm global economic development.

Xie's views are echoed by Wu Xinbo: "If the attacks last just a week or 10 days, the oil price will probably remain stable. But the price stability will surely face challenges if the strikes last a long time."