CIA says Iraq drawing a line on attacking US
( 2002-10-09 09:52 ) (7 )

The CIA said the probability of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein initiating an attack without provocation on the United States in the foreseeable future was "very low," according to a letter made public on Tuesday.

But if he was attacked, the likelihood that Saddam would respond with biological or chemical weapons was "pretty high."

The letter, dated Oct. 7, was signed by Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin on behalf of CIA Director George Tenet and sent to Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham in response to the Florida Democrat requesting the CIA declassify parts of its secret assessment on Iraq.

The Senate is debating how much authority to give President Bush in a war powers resolution, and some Democrats complained that the CIA was not providing intelligence that contradicted the Bush administration's views on Iraq.

Bush, in a televised speech on Monday night, sought to rally public support around his position that Iraq poses a danger to the United States because of its biological and chemical weapons and ties to terrorists.

The CIA assessment in the letter to Graham said Iraq appeared to have stopped short of terrorist attacks against the United States.

'DRAWING A LINE'

"Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW (chemical and biological weapons) against the United States," the CIA said.

"Should Saddam conclude that a U.S.-led attack could no longer be deterred, he probably would become much less constrained in adopting terrorist actions," the letter said.

Tenet, in a statement, said there was "no inconsistency" between the CIA's view of Saddam's growing threat and the view expressed in the president's speech.

"Although we think the chances of Saddam initiating a WMD (weapons of mass destruction) attack at this moment are low -- in part because it would constitute an admission that he possesses WMD -- there is no question that the likelihood of Saddam using WMD against the United States or our allies in the region for blackmail, deterrence, or otherwise grows as his arsenal continues to build," Tenet said.

The letter declassified dialogue from a closed Oct. 2 Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, in which a senior intelligence witness was asked what Saddam would do if he did not feel threatened.

"My judgement would be that the probability of him initiating an attack -- let me put a time frame on it -- in the foreseeable future, given the conditions we understand now, the likelihood I think would be low," the witness said.

In response to a U.S. attack, the likelihood that Saddam would respond with chemical or biological weapons was "pretty high," the intelligence witness said.

INFORMATION FROM DETAINEES

The CIA said its understanding of the relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda was "evolving" and based on sources of varying reliability. The United States blames al Qaeda for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but officials say they have not found any direct link between the attacks and Iraq.

"Some of the information we have received comes from detainees, including some of high rank," the CIA letter said. "We have solid reporting of senior level contacts between Iraq and al Qaeda going back a decade."

"Credible information indicates that Iraq and al Qaeda have discussed safe haven and reciprocal nonaggression," the CIA said.

Bush, in his speech, said some al Qaeda leaders who fled Afghanistan went to Iraq, including a senior leader who received medical treatment in Baghdad this year.

U.S. officials told Reuters that was a reference to Abu Musab Zarqawi who lost a leg in Afghanistan, but that he was no longer in Iraq.

"Iraq's increasing support to extremist Palestinians, coupled with growing indications of a relationship with al Qaeda, suggest that Baghdad's links to terrorists will increase, even absent U.S. military actions," the letter said.

The CIA last week publicly released an unclassified report on Iraq's biological, chemical and nuclear weapons capabilities.