Uncertainty is casting pall on tourism sector

Editor's note: China Daily is publishing a series of reports on cross-Straits relations ahead of Taiwan's new leader taking office. The reports are jointly compiled with the Taipei-based China Post. This, the second in the series, looks at the tourism sector. It is by China Daily reporters An Baijie and Hu Meidong and the China Post news staff.

Tourism operators from the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, already experiencing a drop in numbers, fear an even greater drop if cross-Straits relations take a turn for the worse after Tsai Ing-wen takes office as the island's leader on Friday.

Tourism manager Zhang Siwei found that promoting Taiwan-bound trips among Chinese mainland customers this year has been harder than before.

Zhang is vice-general manager of Strait High-Speed Tourism of Pingtan. The company operates the Haixiahao, a high-speed ferry launched in 2011 between Taipei and Pingtan, the closest point to the island on the Chinese mainland.

Passenger numbers declined sharply in April — normally a busy month for Taiwan-bound tourism agencies — compared with the same period over the past few years.

"During its peak period in April 2014, there were more than 17,000 passengers commuting across the straits on the Haixiahao. Even in April last year, when the ferry underwent repairs and was out of service for some days, passenger numbers were still more than 12,000. However, only about 8,000 traveled on the ferry this April," he said.

He attributed the drop to the island's power handover.

"Many mainland people are reluctant to travel to Taiwan at a time when the cross-Straits ties are facing uncertainties caused by the handover of the island's political power," he said.

His worries have increased amid recent indications that Tsai, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, might not accept the 1992 consensus, which has the one-China principle at its core.

In March, Zhang Zhijun, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that Tsai should clarify her understanding of cross-Straits relations.

Her view of the consensus remains ambiguous and she has said only that she is willing to "maintain the status quo".

Cross-Straits relations could now be affected by "unknown factors", he said.

Tien Yi-show, chairman of the Taiwan Travel Industry Association in Taipei, said of Tsai and the consensus that "it looks like she is going to skip that line. If that is the case, I can tell that hard times are soon to come."

The passenger decline in the past few months is not just reflected by the number of those traveling on the ferry.

The Taiwan tourism sector — the first to face an immediate hit if cross-Straits relations turn sour — has seen a fall in the number of mainland Chinese tourists in general, with tour bus companies, hotels, restaurants and travel agencies complaining about the downturn.

Recent statistics released by the island's Tourism Bureau show that since the beginning of May, the number of mainland Chinese tourists traveling in groups dropped on a daily average by about 33 percent — or 1,650 people from the 5,000 recorded over the same period last year.

Robert Huang, a Taipei travel agent providing tours for Chinese mainland tourists, said these visitors accounted for a quarter of the 10.44 million tourists visiting Taiwan last year.

The 4.1 million tourists from the Chinese mainland last year alone contributed revenue of NT$20 billion ($612.4 million) to local tourism and related sectors, Huang said.

"Earlier this month, the number of these visitors during the May Day holiday dropped sharply," Huang said. "I am afraid there will be a further drop after Tsai is sworn in."

Figures from immigration authorities in Taiwan show that although 4,736 mainland tourists traveled to Taiwan on May 1, the number fell to 4,171 on May 2 and further decreased to 2,868 on May 3 and 2,930 on May 4.

This represented lost business income of $5.5 million compared with the same period last year.

"Tour bus operators have been the hardest hit, as many of them bought new buses to meet the rising demand during the tourism boom over the past eight years of cross-Straits rapprochement," said Tien, the Taiwan Travel Industry Association chairman.

"A number of these operators still have to pay for loans, in some cases up to NT$1 million a month, for the new buses," Tien added

Chiang Chi-hsing, honorary chairman of the Kaohsiung City Tour Bus Association, said that with slightly more than 4 million visits made by Chinese mainland tourists in Taiwan last year, at least 6,000 tour buses were needed to carry them.

"The new government has said we can explore other sources of visitors from Southeast Asia or elsewhere, but what it said is highly unprofessional," Chiang said, adding that Taiwan has long tried to bring in more people from these areas but with little success.

"We don't have enough tour guides able to speak fluent Vietnamese, Thai," or other languages, and "we don't have the necessary software and facilities to entertain those visitors," Chiang added.

Huang said his company has expanded its business to Europe and the United States in the past year, mindful of a possible change in cross-Strait relations if the DPP took power.

"It is OK with us as we made our move fast, but for those who mostly rely on Chinese mainland tourists, it will be a difficult time."

Meanwhile, hotels and restaurants relying on mainland tourists have also reported a drop of 20 to 30 percent in business.

Tien predicted that a number of such operations might have to shut down if cross-Straits relations turn sour. "Our economy is tipped to suffer if the situation worsens," he said.

In April, China Eastern Airlines suspended its flights from Taichung to Wuhan, which had been in operation for three years.

The company did not elaborate on why it halted the flights; nor did it say when they will be resumed.

Justin Mo, a Taiwan resident who owns a duty-free shop in Pingtan, told China Daily that friends who own hotels and restaurants in Taiwan all reported a decrease in customers recently.

"Their businesses all dropped by 20 to 40 percent last month," he said.

Statistics from the China National Tourism Administration show that 4.1 million people from the Chinese mainland traveled to Taiwan last year, accounting for about 40 percent of the island's total number of tourists. On average, each mainland tourist spent NT$7,770 in Taiwan each day.

Zhang Siwei, the tourism manager, said that he is paying close attention to Tsai's remarks on the cross-Straits relationship.

"If she holds a negative attitude toward developing mainland-Taiwan ties, my company's business will suffer," he said.