Analysis: China's social financing stable

BEIJING - China will keep its monetary policy stable throughout the year despite new yuan-denominated lending drops in October, experts said on Monday, as the country's overall social financing level remains stable.

New yuan-denominated lending in October hit a 13-month low of 505.2 billion yuan ($80.32 billion), dropping 81.6 billion yuan from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, said Monday.

The week-long National Day holiday at the beginning of October contributed to the lending decline, said Zhong Zhengsheng, an analyst from Everbright Securities.

It also reflected authorities' efforts to control credit, as the growth rate in August was faster than expected.

The social financing scale in October stood at 1.29 trillion yuan, marking a decline of 360 billion yuan from September, according to PBOC.

Lian Ping, chief economist for the Shanghai-based Bank of Communications, said China's social financing performance can still be considered satisfactory, as the gross social financing volume in the first ten months of the year increased by 2.42 trillion yuan year on year to hit 13.02 trillion yuan.

Lian said social financing could exceed 15 trillion yuan this year, much more than the 12.83 trillion yuan recorded in 2011.

Experts believe China is optimizing its financing structure by lowering new yuan-denominated lending while weighing trust loans and corporate bond financing.

In October, trust loans amounted to 144.5 billion yuan, an increase of 135.5 billion yuan over the same period last year. Meanwhile, corporate bond financing hit 299.2 billion yuan, up 135.3 billion yuan year on year.

In the first ten months, gross corporate bond financing reached 1.86 trillion yuan, higher than 1.37 trillion yuan for the entirety of last year.

Yuan-denominated lending accounted for 39.2 percent of total social financing in October, hitting a record low, while corporate bond financing accounted for 23 percent of the monthly total, according to the PBOC.

As of the end of October, the broad measure of money supply (M2), which covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rose 14.1 percent from a year earlier to 93.64 trillion yuan. The growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than the figure for September.

The government will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, effectively carrying out structural tax reductions and maintaining an appropriate money supply, experts said.

Experts believe the central government will keep its monetary policy stable, as social financing is high enough to support economic expansion and possible inflationary pressure.