National

Regional

Taiwan, HK, Macao

Special Coverage

Focus

Society

Profiles

Brokers confident about 8% GDP growth in 2009

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-12-21 21:47

BEIJING -- More than 20 brokerages in the country reached the agreement that the country would adopt looser monetary and fiscal policies next year. Most of them expect the economy to grow 8 percent or more.

China Galaxy Securities, Central China Securities and Bohai Securities said the growth rate would be between 8.5 percent to 9 percent. Guotai Junan Securities, less optimistic, forecast a 7 percent growth rate.

Related readings:  'China can keep GDP above 8% in 2009'  RBS slashes China '09 GDP growth forecast to 5%  9% GDP growth tipped for next year

Shenyin & Wanguo Securities said the country's economy is still facing pressure from periodic adjustment and will grow more slowly over the next two years.

Their views differ in terms of when the lowest growth would occur. Changjiang Securities said that would probably happen before the second quarter next year. Guotai Junan said the third quarter. Shenying & Wangguo and Haitong Securities said 2010 would likely see the lowest figure.

However, the brokerages have growing concerns over deflation in 2009. Guotai Junan said the country's economy is likely to experience deflation next year but if a looser monetary policy is carried out and investors' confidence rallies, the economy would enter a milder inflation period.