http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/06/AR2007020601220.html

NEW YORK -- Many mutual funds that invest abroad had sizeable 2006 gains that bore the stamp "made in China" but recent volatility in that country's stock markets have cast some doubt onto this year's returns.

In what some have likened to the feverish nature of the dot-com bubble in the United States, Chinese investors have poured enormous sums into the country's mainland stock markets in the past year and a half.

"Those companies are just like the companies that came out of Silicon Valley from 1995 to 2000. Some are going to sink, some are going swim," said Donald H. Straszheim, vice chairman at Roth Capital Partners LLC in Los Angeles, describing many companies listed in China's mainland stock markets.

While the investment possibilities in China might seem as broad as the country itself, mutual fund investors should be careful to avoid simply chasing the outsize stock market returns. Opportunities remain, though they might be accompanied by unsettling volatility that mutual fund investors would want to avoid if they weren't prepared to hang on for the long-term.

Last year, share prices more than doubled in China, soaring 130 percent. But in recent weeks, after regulators at the Shanghai Stock Exchange warned the markets were becoming overheated, volatility has increased and led at times to back-to-back sessions of pullbacks.

"The volatility is something investors should've expected all along, especially after the big run-up that we've seen," said Arijit Dutta, an analyst with investment research provider Morningstar Inc. "Generally, we tend to discourage people from investing in a single-country fund. Many investors may not be able to stomach the ups and downs and end up using the funds badly by buying at the wrong time and selling at the wrong time."

And volatility is only likely to increase as stocks rise, said Liang Zhou, research manager for China at fund-tracker Lipper Inc. "Even though the market is no longer cheap now, investors still want to invest."

Zhou, who is based in Shanghai, expects the Chinese economy will continue to grow at about 10 annually but predicts investors' returns will fluctuate. The country has been tightening regulations of some of its stock markets, particularly those of the mainland.

"We also find the quality is increasing fast," Zhou said of the stock markets in China and the companies listed there.

Mainland stock markets such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange have weaker financial controls than those of Hong Kong, whose regulatory controls are akin to those of other developed markets in Europe, the United States and elsewhere in Asia.

Most U.S. mutual funds that invest in China do so through Hong Kong, thereby skirting some of the concerns about volatility seen in the mainland markets. Often volatility in mainland markets doesn't necessarily produce ripples in Hong Kong.

"The retail investors in China are not sophisticated investors," Straszheim said. "They are much more speculators. The markets run on rumor and the regulatory regime is still not fully developed."

Dutta noted many China funds carry a "pretty wide mandate" and aren't necessarily just listed in mainland markets or even solely in China. They could spill into areas like Taiwan or South Korea.

"For most investors just investing in a broad diversified fund would probably give them enough exposure to China," Dutta said. He said investors determined to invest solely in China should make a long-term commitment so they won't be unnerved by volatile periods.

Guang Yang, portfolio manager of the Templeton Global Opportunities Trust, which invests about 10 percent of its assets in China, contends there are other ways to gain access to the Chinese market that can likely leave investors weary of volatility on more solid footing.

He suggests investing in funds that look more broadly at Asian companies or that invest in companies outside the country doing sizable business in China. He noted that Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, the world's largest iron ore producer, draws a big chunk of its business from China. "It's a Brazilian company listed in Brazil but it's actually a China play."

Also, many Chinese companies such as Sina Corp., an Internet concern, and China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. are listed in the United States.

"I do think the market is getting ahead of itself a little bit too fast and too quickly," Yang said, speaking from Hong Kong. "Now you start to see people are trying to jump in and mortgage their homes to buy stock. That's not a good sign."

Still, he sees China, whose increasingly affluent population is more than three times that of the United States, as offering a sensible way for U.S. investors to diversify, provided they do so in moderation.

"I think it's absolutely right for investors to look at the opportunities in China to be able to capture the growth," Yang said. "For some investors it's risky to invest in China but it's probably even riskier by not being invested in China."