China's voice will count on climate

Editor's Note: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s fourth assessment report has made clear that the global temperature rise has to be controlled within 2 Celsius degrees to avoid irreversible changes and climatic catastrophes, and has recommended that global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2015. The organization was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for the report.

The Kyoto Protocol, which asks industrialized countries to make quantified commitments to cut emissions of greenhouse gases that are stoking global warming, will expire in 2012. A successor is expected to be approved at the climate talks in Copenhagen in December.

But with the climate summit only one month away, the prospect for a deal is at stake, with developing and developed countries disagreeing on key issues such as emission reduction targets, finances and technology transfers.

Rajendra K Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, talked with China Business Weekly reporter Li Jing on the current stalemate in international climate negotiations and how to break it.

Pachauri has served as chairman of the IPCC since 2002. He is also director general of Tata Energy Research Institute, a research and policy organization in India.

Q: The scientific research results in the IPCC's fourth assessment report have now been accepted by most of the politicians, i.e. the 2-degree limit. But little progress has been achieved in climate negotiations. What do you think are the sticking points?

A: I think there are two major sticking points. The first is the timing issue with the United States. President Obama has clearly signaled that he wants the United States to lead in this field, but he doesn't have enough time.

In the US system of government, which is very different from the Chinese system of government, the president only has limited power. It is the Congress that has to approve the legislation. There has, I'm afraid, been a huge delay and there also has been some resistance. So the US has not been able to come up with legislation. And that clearly is a major handicap.

The second is that every country is trying to see that its own interests are protected - very narrow, short-term interests. They are not looking at the larger problem of humanity. After all, we're all human beings. They should be worried about climate change and what they could do to protect their children and grandchildren.

But people are not taking those views, unfortunately. They only focus on short-term interests. I think somehow we need leadership to break this deadlock. I think five or six world leaders have to decide. They have to push for an agreement in Copenhagen.

Q: Could you specify these five or six world leaders?

A: Certainly President Obama. We certainly need leadership from the European Union. I must say the Japanese prime minister has been very responsible. He is making the decision to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent. Maybe President Hu Jintao, and I think even India. Some world leaders, like the G-20, have to decide what is needed. And if these top leaders were to provide instructions to the negotiators, then maybe things would start moving.

Q: You mentioned that President Hu Jintao and China's stance on the climate negotiations will be crucial. What kind of efforts from China do you expect to facilitate the negotiation?

A: I'm very encouraged by what President Hu Jintao said at the United Nations climate summit in New York in September. I think China will take a very responsible approach. There is no doubt about that, because it is good for the Chinese people. After all, the impact of climate change on China will be very serious. So China has to be part of the solution.

A legally binding emissions reduction target is not necessary as far as China and any other developing country is concerned. But a reduction in carbon emissions intensity is.

Q: It seems that the world has lowered expectations for the Copenhagen climate summit. Even UN Climate Change Secretariat Yvo De Boer has said a full climate deal is "unlikely" in Copenhagen. What will the world become with or without a Copenhagen deal?

A: Well, I haven't lowered my expectation. I still think we can get a deal, and I hope we get a deal. And if we don't have a deal this time, we will have to revisit the deal after six months.

There is so much momentum in the whole system. There is so much public awareness, and so many world leaders are committed to taking actions, that I don't think all these will stop. Even after Copenhagen, there will be efforts to see that we come up with other actions and other targets. Therefore, I don't feel pessimistic on this issue.

Q: Do you think the cap-and-trade mechanism and carbon tax are effective tools to reduce carbon emissions? What is the best policy to achieve the carbon cuts needed to protect ourselves from disaster?

A: I think the governments have to decide what is the best method they want to use. Some would use regulation, and some would use taxes or cap-and-trade. Others might just leave it to local bodies to decide. Every country will have to decide what it wants to do. But the important thing is that you must get a net reduction of emissions for the whole world.

The IPCC's fourth assessment report has said clearly that the year when we have to start reducing global emissions is 2015. If we want to limit the temperatures rise within 2 degrees, then global emissions must come down after 2015.

Q: Is a global cap-and-trade system possible for reducing greenhouse gas emissions?

A: Unless countries all over the world agree to do so, you cannot expect a global cap-and-trade system. And in any case, as far as any developing countries are concerned, you can't impose any caps at this stage.

You might do that with developed countries. For instance, in Europe there is a carbon trading system already, so for them it could be quite easy.

Q: What's your opinion about carbon tariffs that some countries have proposed?

A: I personally think that is a mistake. We shouldn't bring in protectionism under the guise of environmental benefits. The world will not accept that.

Q: We already have concepts such as a "low-carbon economy" and "green new deal". But when we look at economic and social development plans, few things have been done to actually carry out these ideas, especially in developing countries, since low-carbon technologies are still too expensive and experimental. What do you think the world should do?

A: I think we developing countries should develop low-carbon technologies ourselves. I really think countries like India and China can become leaders.

We should move ahead and develop a lot of technologies ourselves. Both China and India have the capability. We don't need to wait for developed countries.

(China Daily 11/09/2009 page2)