Weak trade figures 'signal slowing economy'

By Lyu Chang (China Daily) Updated: 2014-04-11 07:07

First-quarter total trade with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations went up 2 percent, while trade with Japan rose 2.6 percent, despite ongoing political tension.

Weak trade figures 'signal slowing economy'

China's foreign trade down 1% in Q1

China sees trade deficit in Feb

Wang Haifeng, a researcher at the Institute for International Economic Research at the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the first-quarter trade figures didn't necessarily mean much for full-year trade growth.

"Some special factors distorted export and import figures, such as fake export reporting early last year," he said. "China's trade with Hong Kong can be explained by the 'hot money' outflows due to an undervalued renminbi from the fourth quarter of 2013 through this year."

Submitting fraudulent export receipts to government authorities is a way for "hot money" for investment to evade much of the usual scrutiny that capital inflows face in China. This practice usually involves capital flows from Hong Kong.

Wang said that the import figures are a reflection that the real estate and vehicle industries have started to stagnate.

Other analysts said that exports remain stronger than the official figures suggest, and most of them forecast that China will meet its full-year target of 7.5 percent trade growth.

"We continue to expect investment and construction activity to accelerate following project announcements by the central government and local governments since the middle of March. We maintain our full-year GDP growth forecast of 7.2 percent and look for a recovery in growth momentum," a report by Barclays Research said.