E-commerce set to be new engine for national economy

Market expected to grow to $8.17 trillion in 2020, says Alibaba vice-president

Online retail, which is enabling China's shift from an export-oriented society to one that is more driven by domestic purchases, is expected to serve as a major engine to drive the country's economic growth by 2020, said experts on Wednesday.

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According to research conducted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, online shopping, a major commercial force in China, is estimated to contribute about 5.48 percent of the country's economic growth by 2020.

"It (5.48 percent) may seem like a small number, but it can have a strong influence on our economy. Not only will the size of the economy increase, but the economic structure can also benefit from e-influence," said Li Yongjian, head of Information and e-Business Studies at the National Academy of Economic Strategy at the academy.

Li's prediction is based on the assumption that China's gross domestic product will rise by 7.5 percent annually until 2020, and the growth of the nation's online retail market will be 25 percent year-on-year.

The growth of China's online retail sector has so far exceeded 25 percent year-on-year. Despite a relatively slower momentum compared with previous years, China's online retail sector is estimated to overtake that of the United States, becoming the largest online retail market in the world with an estimated growth of 60 percent year-on-year, said China's Ministry of Commerce in December.

Li, who heads a team of researchers quantifying the influence of online retail on China's economy, said e-commerce does not just boost consumption because it is convenient to shop online, but the sector also narrows the purchasing gap between urban and rural China.

"People have access to the same offerings online whether they are in first-tier cities or fourth-tier cities," he said, adding that online retail plays an increasingly important role in generating jobs, which is also important to a country's economy.

Chinese luxury shoppers flocking online	Urban shoppers shifting to online purchases