What lies ahead

Brice at Standard Chartered Bank says the Shanghai Composite Index can often suddenly surprise even hardened investors.

"There was one year it went up 500 percent. I think going back up to 2007 levels though in short order would be an extremely bullish forecast," he says.

"What we have seen though is that if it (the index) does appreciate, it does so quickly. So if we get past 2,150 in 2013, we could easily get to 2,500. Sentiment can change very quickly."

Li at J.L.Warren remains very bearish about the outlook for the market in 2013 but also the two-year horizon.

"I predict it will be flat or slightly down in 2013 but could have a major blow-up in 2014. The problem is that listed banks generate about 50 percent of the entire A-share (Shanghai-listed companies) market earnings and I believe banks are the weakest sector in the whole China economy at present."

Li, however, is confident about certain sectors of the China economy.

"I like stocks in the healthcare sector, which includes medical devices and pharma. The Chinese are getting older and sicker. I also like companies in the education field. Parents will never stop spending on their children's education. Those in consumer goods will also benefit from greater affluence," she says.

One of the big questions is whether this year will produce some light at the end of the dark tunnel of the economic crisis, which will work through its fifth year.

Magnus at UBS supports the view of economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in their book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly that it takes 10 years to overcome a systemic financial crisis.

"On this basis we will be only half way through in 2013. Japan is basically my template and it has been 22 years since its bust and the underlying growth rate has been just 1 percent a year," he says.

Ballim at Standard Bank also believes it will also take a decade before the global economy returns to any form of normality:

This year "is certainly unlikely to be a definitive year. What we have witnessed is a crisis of such enormity that no person of working age has ever experienced before".

"What we have to move toward first is a stable equilibrium, one where growth may be low but at least it is stable, unlike now."

He also believes once there is a recovery, the new normal will be a global economy dominated by not just China and other Asian economies but those from Africa and Latin America as well.

"I think the crisis will have accelerated the emergence of a dominance of both eastern and southern markets," he says.

andrewmoody@chinadaily.com.cn

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