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The price of green revolution

By Fu Jing (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-11-18 07:49

"If China undertakes serious green reforms and implements the goals set, the transition could take 10 to 15 years. So between 2020 and 2025 the new paradigm should be in place," he said.

However, Charles H. Wells, chief scientist for the center of excellence at OSIsoft, an energy efficiency software firm in the US, argued that the transition in China "could be done immediately". He said the workforce is available in China to build the panels, inverters, capacitors and batteries necessary to install solar microgrids and other energy-efficient networks, putting the country at a "distinct advantage over the US in implementing change".

"This is because decisions are made at high government levels and then implemented, but this is impossible in the US due to its current highly fragmented infrastructure," he said.

Wells explained that long-term green projects are almost non-existent in the US and that it is nearly impossible to build a new power plant or transmission line. The power industry is also very conservative and slow to make changes. Even with $3.4 billion in stimulus money from Washington, it will still take at least three years to see significant results, he said.

"The biggest challenge is the lack of engineering skills to implement smart green systems," he said.

China produces 300,000 new qualified electrical engineers every year. However, Wells said far fewer electrical engineers graduate college in the US, while those that do mostly specialize in solid state devices, such as transistors or microprocessor chips, and not power systems.

He believes China could provide help in this area if the US relaxed immigration and work permit policies, and China accepted more US advanced technology to improve efficiency.

To realize a green shift in the US would not be easy, said Lehmann. "Partly because the US is quite far behind in many green technologies, including behind China."

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In the cases of climate mitigation and climate adaptation, the US has no model for China or other nations to follow, making "the US a major part of the problem, not part of the solution", he said.

Citing a survey by the US-based PEW Research Center, he said that among industrialized countries and other nations such as China, Brazil and India, the US has the lowest level of "public awareness".

"US Congress (the nation's legislature) is likely to be reticent. Many US companies are actively resisting and some still negate the scientific evidence," he added.

Obama has strong views on climate change, as opposed to his predecessor George W. Bush, but when he heads to Copenhagen, Lehmann believes the president will have neither a popular nor a political mandate.

China is different, he said. On the ground, there are many impressive initiatives being taken. There are, of course, still problems, notably in the nation's intensive manufacturing process and poor energy efficiency, while China also uses more energy than it produces. However, the messages from Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao have indicated China is committed to a low-carbon economy.

"In terms of commitment, China is in a forefront position. What people worry about is whether China will be able to fulfill the commitments," he added.

 

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