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Q3 inflation expected to fall deeper

By Ding Qi (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-07-28 17:11

After a slowdown in the past months, China's consumer price index (CPI) growth is expected to fall further during the third quarter, according to a survey among 17 institutions, Shanghai Securities News reported on Monday.

Released by Peking University's China Center for Economic Research, the survey included estimations of 17 financial and social institutions such as China International Capital Corporation, HSBC, Citibank, etc.

According to these institutions, the nation's inflation pressure will continue to ease during the third quarter of this year. The weighed average of their forecasts on third-quarter CPI growth was 6.1 percent year-on-year. The lowest estimation, which came from the State Information Center and Galaxy Securities, was only 5.6 percent, much lower than the record of past months.

China's CPI grew 7.8 percent during the second quarter and 7.9 percent during the first half, according to official statistics released earlier this month.

A declining future of CPI also lowers analysts' tightening expectations, as only four out of 17 institutions anticipated one interest rate hike of 27 basis points during the third quarter. The other 13 believed the central bank would leave the rate unchanged.

In addition, 12 institutions thought the nation's third quarter GDP would grow at a slower pace than second quarter's 10.2 percent. Four believed the gauge would be the same. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which expected the GDP to grow 10.7 percent during the third quarter, became the only institution surveyed to see a GDP rebound.

The Chinese economy is likely to maintain stable and fast growth this year, as fundamental forces shoring up the economic engine remain unchanged, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of National Bureau of Statistics, said on Sunday.

But how to draw a delicate balance between inflation control and economic growth has now become a crucial job for the government. According to a political bureau meeting of the Communist Party of China Central Committee last Friday, policymakers will maintain the consistency of the macro-control policies, while increasing flexibility in the second half and carefully deciding the targets of macro-control measures.