Indicators send confusing growth signals

Zhou Jingtong, senior analyst at the Institute of International Finance of Bank of China Ltd

The CPI figure was not a surprise. We expect there will not be a significant pickup in consumer inflation in the remainder of this year and the annual CPI growth will be 2.1 percent.

Unless growth in the fourth quarter slows below 7 percent, across-the-board easing is unlikely to occur. I think as long as the economic growth rate does not dip below 7.1 percent, meaning that the economy is running at a pace faster than the potential growth rate, significant easing is not necessary.

Chang Jian, chief economist at Barclays Plc, Hong Kong

We forecast inflation of 2.8 percent in 2015. Non-food inflation slid in September to 1.3 percent year-on-year, given cheaper fuel costs and continued falls in house prices. House price inflation decreased to 1.6 percent, led by the continued fall in rent levels.

PPI deflation worsened in September, led by further declines in mining prices amid overcapacity reductions and the property market correction. The details show that the drop was broad-based and was led by mining products. Mining product prices fell 6.7 percent year-on-year in September compared with a 4.4 percent decline in August.

The weaker-than-expected inflation figure comes amid signs of stabilization in economic activity, but real sector data are likely to remain on the softer side. We forecast modest 7.5 percent year-on-year growth in industrial production, in line with the consensus, and a 16.3 percent year-on-year increase in year-to-date fixed-asset investment.

The September trade data add more weight to our view that growth will recover sequentially in the fourth quarter. We expect exports will continue to post double-digit growth in the fourth quarter on the back of improving external demand and a favorable base of comparison.

Zhu Min, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund

The biggest risk to China's economy remains the adjustment in the property sector, which accounts for a major share of China's GDP growth and has influence on a wide range of industries. Prudent monetary policy is suitable for China at the moment and slower economic growth should be welcomed as it will ensure steadier growth in the future. The IMF has forecast the Chinese economy will grow 7.4 percent this year and 7.1 percent next year.